The following two weeks could redefine technology

There is always something in danger of investment. But at the moment, it is really intelligent to keep your eyes open to major market disturbances.

With the balance of risk-reversed in the stabilization of American actions, Wall Street entered a pivot section in the next 14 negotiation sessions which could determine its short-term management. In a period often defined by uncertainty, key economic data and Fed policy will weigh heavily on the feeling of investors.

No sector is more vulnerable than technology.

What’s going on in the next two weeks?

Investors will navigate a dense calendar featuring the latest employment figures, a critical inflation gauge and the interest rate decision of the federal reserve, each offering indices on the route of monetary policy.

Bloomberg postulates that these events can crystallize the Wall Street path for the rest of the year.

Tech in the spotlight

Nowhere is market vulnerability is more visible only in technological actions, which have led a large part of this year’s advance.

The so-called “seven magnificent” represent more than 30% of the weighting of the S&P 500. Their performance in the next two weeks could dictate if the wider market distances potential shocks or triples.

Recent income has underlined both resilience and risk. Nvidia, for example, has posted record quarterly income on the back of the AI ​​request, but analysts warn its noble assessment leaves little room for disappointment. The Apple iPhone cycle and Amazon and Microsoft cloud income will be closely monitored, with very potentially amplified softness through the index.

History suggests that the volatility of technology can quickly overturn outwards. In September 2020, a lively withdrawal from Mega-Cap technology erased billions of market billions in a few weeks. This year, the evaluations seem to be stretched again: the NASDAQ is negotiated almost 30 times the profits, well above its long-term average.

If it’s calm now, why worry?

The stock markets remain unusually quiet. The S&P 500 has not been down 2% in 91 consecutive negotiation sessions, the longest section since July 2024. Meanwhile, the Vix volatility index has remained below the 20 without interruption since the end of June.

Thomas Lee, research manager at Fundstrat Global Advisors, warns that if a correction is plausible, calling a decline of 5% to 10% in the fall. But the index could still bounce around 6,800 to 7,000 points by the end of the year, reports the Economic Times.

“Investors presuppose correctly to be cautious in September,” Lee told Bloomberg. “The Fed is rewriting a dominant cutting cycle after a long break. It makes it difficult for merchants to position themselves. ”

Seasonal risks and overvaluation

September is historically one of the lowest months for actions. Bloomberg notes that over the past three decades, the S&P 500 has on average drop in September, falling in the past four years, adding weight to caution.

In addition, the index is negotiated at around 22 times the profits. This is an evaluation level observed only during the DOT-COM bubble and the post-pandemic technological frenzy.

“We are buyers of Big Tech,” said Bloomberg Tatyana Bunich, president and founder of Financial 1 tax. “But these actions are very expensive at the moment, we are holding money on the sidelines and waiting for any decent perspective before adding more to this position.”

Summary table: Market dynamic at a glance

So, does the risk prevail over the yield?

The message of the bull based on Wall Street data is clear: stay careful in the short term, even if optimism for end -of -year recovery takes place.

The unusual calm of volatility can be sleepy investors in complacency, preparing the way for a sudden sale if the data or the federal reserve defy expectations. But if the political prospects become favorable, the markets can resume their march upwards.

This two -week window promises to be less like a routine market cycle and more like a crossroads divided between correction and break.

“I expect this action rally soon,” said Bloomberg, famous Bull Ed, by Yardeni Research.

“The market reduces many happy news, so if the IPC is hot and there is a strong report on jobs, traders can suddenly conclude that rate reductions are not necessarily a concluded case, which can lead to a brief sale,” he said. “But the actions will restore once the traders will realize that the Fed cannot reduce rates for a good reason: the economy is still strong.”