Fear a ball of a return to the civil war on the betrayal trial of Riek Machar

Farouk Chothia,,
Ear And
Nichola MandatAlready

The fears that South Sudan – the youngest nation in the world – can dive into a new civil war intensified after the party of the suspended vice -president Riek Machar called for a “change of diet”.
The appeal occurred after Machar – currently under house arrest – was accused of murder, betrayal and crimes against humanity.
His party, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in the opposition (SPLM-IO) denounced that he accused a “political witch hunt” to “dismantle” a 2018 peace agreement which ended a five-year civil war.
Meanwhile, additional neighboring Ugandan troops have been deployed in the South Sudan capital, Juba, while tensions are increasing.
The last crisis comes as a United Nations report accused South-South officials of having stolen billions of dollars in petroleum income, leaving millions of people without essential services and fueled deadly conflict.
What is the background?
South Sudan, one of the poorest countries in the world, obtained its independence from Sudan in 2011 after decades of struggle led by Sudan from the People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) under President Salva Kiir.
Two years at just two years old, a civil war broke out when Kiir rejected Machar as vice-president, accusing him of having plotted a coup.
The conflict that followed, widely fought according to ethnic lines between the supporters of the two leaders, led to around 400,000 deaths and 2.5 million forced people from their home – more than a fifth of the population.
As part of the peace agreement, Machar was reinstated as vice-president in a government of unity which was to open the way to the elections.
Why is there a tension now?

The current crisis was launched in early March when the white army militia, allied with Machar during the civil war, clashed with the army in the state of the Haut-Nile and exceeded a military base in Nasir.
Then, on March 7, a United Nations helicopter trying to evacuate the troops was criticized, leaving several dead, including a high -ranking general of the army.
Almost three weeks later, Machar and several of his associates were placed under house arrest. They were accused of trying to arouse a rebellion.
“The prospect of peace and stability in South Sudan has now been endangered,” said Oyet Nathaniel Pierino, deputy chief of SPLM-IO at the time.
Rather than defusing tensions, the government has again struck, hitting Machar with a multitude of charges – including betrayal, the ultimate crime against the state – in September.
A few days later, his party increased pressure, denouncing Kiir’s government as a “dictatorship” and demanding “regime change”.
In what seemed to be a call to arms, he urged his supporters to “introduce himself to national service” and to use “all the means available to return to their country and their sovereignty”.
However, there is no connection to suggest that the mobilization of troops is underway, offering a glimmer of hope that fresh fighting will not have.
What about the 2018 peace agreement?
Although MACAR’s inclusion in the unit government was a key element in the agreement, other parties have not been implemented.
The key problem for many Sudanese southern is the security agreement.
The agreement described how former rebel forces and government soldiers are gathered in a unified national army made up of 83,000 soldiers. The others were supposed to be disarmed and demobilized.
But that has not happened and there are still many militias aligned with different political groups.
The agreement also described the establishment, with the help of the African Union, of a court intended to judge the authors of violence. But this has not been created, in part because those who occupy some of the main positions of the government are reluctant to set up something that could see them judged.
The elections which were to occur in 2022 have still not taken place and no new constitution has been written.
How did corruption affect the situation?
A report by the United Nations Human Rights Commission in South Sudan accused the country’s political elite of billions of dollars in oil revenues.
Published Tuesday, the 101 -page file – plunder a nation: how rampant corruption has sparked a human rights crisis in South South – documented how the government had collected more than $ 25.2 billion (18.4 billion pounds sterling) in oil income since 2011, but most foods, systematically deposited, depriving millions of Sudane Sudane medicine, medicine and security.
A section underlined how the government’s controversial “Oil For Roads” program has sent around $ 2.2 billion to political patronage areas rather than road construction.
Yasmin Sooka, president of the committee, said that corruption had become the “engine of the decline of South Sudan”.
“Billions for health care and schools disappear through opaque offers and screen companies,” she said.
The Minister of Justice Joseph Geng Akech rejected the conclusions and assigned the economic problems of South Sudan to conflicts, climate change and the drop in sales of crude oil.
What is the problem between Machar and Kiir?
While Kiir and Machar, both in the 1970s, were part of the SPLM which fought for independence, longtime tensions exist.
These were fed by ethnic divisions – Kiir is dinka, while Machar is Nuer – and competing political ambitions.
When Kiir limoted Machar in 2013, triggering civil war, Machar denounced him as a “dictator”.
The creation of other problems between the two is the repeated reports of the elections.
The polls have been delayed four times, leaving Machar incapable of carrying out his presidential ambitions while perceptions develop according to which Kiir intends to be a lifetime president.
Who is Riek Machar?
Born in 1952, the 72 -year -old man was the 27th son of the chief of Ayod and Leer and was raised in the Presbyterian church.
As the first cycle, he studied mechanical engineering at the University of Khartoum and in 1984 obtained a doctorate in philosophy and strategic planning at the British University of Bradford.
He changed camps several times during the battle to separate from Sudan, while he was trying to strengthen his position and that of his ethnic group Nuer.
He became vice-president of South Sudan in Independence in 2011. Machar was dismissed in 2013 and then reinstated as part of an agreement in 2016, but then fled while the fighting resumed.
Who is Salva Kiir?
Born in 1951, the 74 -year -old Roman Catholic was the son of a shepherd and the eighth of the nine children.
At 17, he joined Anyanya, one of the rebel groups who was fighting for southern independence during the Sudanese First Civil War in 1967. Sixteen years later – in the Second Sudanese Civil War – he was one of the five founding members of the Army / Movement of the Liberation of the People of Sudan.
The former rebel commander, specializing in military intelligence, was considered moderate within the SPLM and became his leader in 2005 after the death of John Garantig in a helicopter accident
He became president of South Sudan on independence and has stayed in this position for 14 years because no election has taken place.
How bad could they be bad?
In March, Nicholas Haysom, head of the United Nations Mission in South Sudan, warned that the country was “on the verge of a large -scale civil war”, which would devastate the nation which still takes care of the consequences of the last conflict.
We fear that a return to fighting could lead to a “war by proxy in the region”, according to Daniel Akech, analyst at the reflection group of the crisis group.
“South Sudan is filled with so many armed groups, they all seem to prepare for military engagement.”
The war in neighboring Sudan adds another element of instability.
The leaders of the members of the IGAD regional group – including Uganda – are supposed to be the guarantors of the 2018 agreement.
Some Ugandan troops were deployed in the country in March as part of the South Sudan government said it was a long -standing agreement to support the army.
This week, a convoy transporting additional Ugandan troops was spotted in Juba on Monday afternoon.
It included seven trucks full of highly armed soldiers, three armored vehicles and an ambulance – all without license plates.
This additional contingent of Ugandan soldiers has raised concerns that Machar’s trial could become violent.
During the weekend, Machar met his defense team before his trial which should start soon – although no date has been confirmed.
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