Moldova has key elections while the shadow of Russia is looming

Friday evening, the crowd which is deposited by Central Chisinau waving the EU flags was clear: they believe that Russia is trying to steal their elections and bring the pro-Kremlin politicians to power in Moldova.

“Their weapon is money, your weapon is your vote!”, Was the strongest song, because several hundred supporters of the master party, not, and its pro-European policies joined the last rally before the poll on Sunday.

This week, the Moldavian police and prosecutors have revealed evidence of interference from the elections on an unprecedented scale: the purchase of votes and the disinformation that they are linked directly to Russia. They also discovered a plot to foment violent disorders, holding dozens of men who went to Serbia for training, especially in the use of firearms.

The opposition parties reject discussions on Russian interference as a “political spectacle” claiming that the government devotes the ground to cancel the vote if the step loses its majority in the Parliament.

But Moldova took a decisive turn to the membership of the EU and far from Moscow after the invasion of Russia on the scale of Ukraine. Now the evidence suggests that Russia invests massively in the restoration of its influence.

He tries to recover control.

Parade between Romania and Ukraine, Moldova has been independent since the USSR collapsed more than three decades ago. Last summer, he launched membership talks to the EU in tandem with Ukraine.

Prime Minister Dorin Recean considers these elections as a “final battle” for his country.

“There is constant pressure from Russia,” he told me, while the pro-Pas crowd broke after its brief march through Chisinau.

“They spend the equivalent of more than 1% of our GDP to overthrow our government – on propaganda and false messages.”

Part of this False -News network – Display of anti -PAS content for species – was discovered in a recent BBC survey.

It is linked to Ilan Sor, a fleeting Moldovan oligarch now in Moscow.

In response to the BBC investigation, the Russian Embassy in the United Kingdom denied participation in false news and electoral interference and said it was the EU who had interfered in the Moldova elections.

All this occurs while the bombardment of Russia from Ukraine degenerates and with Moscow accused of always more hostile activity elsewhere in Europe, such as sending drones to Poland.

So not try to mobilize the voters by bringing the danger home.

Its bright yellow electoral leaflets are full of promises that the party guarantees membership of the EU “in the next four years” as well as a European investment bonus and maximum respect in the world.

But the back of the paper is dark and disturbing. There is an image of Ukrainian houses destroyed by war and a warning not to “put our country back to Russia”.

Then come the faces of the opposition leaders of Moldova and the slogan: “Tell not to the candidates of Putin.”

“This is exactly the risk at the moment in Moldova,” said the Prime Minister, justifying the use of such frightening tactics.

Beyond the shabby blocks of the Soviet era of the suburbs of the city of Chisinau, a short trip by car leads to the field on the ground bordered by grape vines. It’s like a mini Tuscany with many more nests in a poultry.

In Cricova, with the sun starting to slip, women chat on benches on the main square while their children rush on a climbing frame.

Moldova is not rich, even in places produced by vineyards like this, and many have left the country to seek a better life and an income abroad. This created such a large diaspora, his vote has become decisive.

Since the large -scale invasion of Ukraine in Russia in 2022, the sharp increase in energy prices has tightened the economy even more – growth close to zero.

“Politicians have sophisticated paper to print their electoral posters and leaflets, but there is nothing decent for the school books of our children”, one of the groans, displaying a photo on his phone from school books, in tatters and torn.

Another says that his salary on a factory production chain is blocked at around £ 100 per month, but the cost of living has skyrocketed. “I don’t know who to vote for, they all make promises”, she shruggs. “So they do nothing.”

Beyond the step, the choice of Sunday includes the patriotic block composed mainly of the socialist and communist parties. A key member, Irina Vlah, was forbidden to present herself on Friday due to illicit financing allegations.

Another block, Alternativa, presents itself as pro-EU, but its candidates include the mayor of Chisinau who is prohibited from traveling to the Europe Schengen area for unpertified security reasons. He appeals to the decision.

In all, there are more than 20 participants, although there is a minimum threshold to enter the Parliament.

Tamara, who is sixty, tells me that her own vote will not be decided by a lack of school books or even wages.

“We have chosen the EU path, and I want to continue on this path, like everyone else,” she said.

“I wouldn’t want to go back. It’s scary! I have already been there.”

Igor Dodon is not afraid by restoring relations with Russia. It is something he actively seeks.

Even if Moscow waged war on the neighbor of Moldova, Ukraine, the former president has three photos of the Russian leader Vladimir Putin among the photo gallery on the wall of his office.

He underlines other photos, including old blows with American president Donald Trump and French president Emmanuel Macron, as proof of his “balanced” policy.

But Putin and his allies dominate the display.

Dodon is one of the main opposition candidates on Sunday, for the Socialist Party, and increases their shoulders on Russian interference. In July, he went to Moscow for meetings and said that if he won this election, he will oppose all the sanctions against Russia “even if Brussels dictates him”.

It would also be the purchase of gas in Russia to reduce costs. Why not, he wants to know, if the members of the EU Slovakia and Hungary can do so?

Dodon calls for his pro-Moldovan approach, not pro-Russian, motivated by beneficiary margins and not morality. When he pushed, he said that the war in Ukraine was the fault of the “two parts”.

“We must have good relations with everyone. It means that we should not be friends with someone against another,” he said.

But he is not at all friendly with President Maia Sandu, who founded not, or with his allies.

“If not say that they won on Sunday, we will show that it is a solution. They can only obtain a majority out of falsification,” said Dodon, promising a wave of street demonstrations if that happens.

“We will declare a victory and defend it,” he said. “We will not let them cancel the vote.”

Until now, the only documented efforts to distort the Moldova elections have been by Russia.

“This is one of the most advanced interference campaigns that we have seen,” said police chief, Cernăuțeanu.

It is also greater.

In the presidential elections last year, he said that people were paid up to $ 40 to vote for the pro-Russian forces which then almost won.

“We calculate that Russia has invested more than $ 100 million in total last year,” said the police chief. “Now, this amount is more than three times.”

The process is also more sophisticated, using cryptocurrency instead of silver bags.

“For the Russian part, Moldova is considered a territory where they should rightly have an influence … within the borders of the former Empire,” said John Lough, head of foreign policy at the New Eurasian Strategies Center (Nest), a group of reflection based in London.

“With a very traditional imperial thought … they see it as their right to Moldova.

“If they can bring to power a friendly government, it would be demoralizing for Europeans,” he adds.

There is also the possibility of a firm closure in Europe for more hybrid activity and the potential offered by the Region of the Transnistria escaped which borders Ukraine.

Throcked by Moscow, it still houses a store for ammunition from the Soviet era and a contingent of Russian troops.

A government of Russia “could make things more difficult for Ukrainians” because of the Transnistria, underlines Lough.

Moscow denied allegations and accused the Moldovan authorities of spreading anti-Russian rhetoric.

“The authorities are so afraid of the elections that they hamper the appointment of candidates, participation in the vote and the observation of the vote,” said the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Maria Zakharova this week.

For the Cernăuțeanu police chief, it is the most serious plot of violence.

More than 100 people – mainly “athletic” men, he told me – were detained for having attended training in Serbia, in particular by crossing the police lines and seizing weapons.

Two were linked to the political structure of Dodon. The former president says that the party always checks its files.

Friday, Serbian police announced the arrest of two men suspected of having organized the training up to 170 others. Moldova thinks that military information from Russia from GRU was involved.

“I do not think that anyone in Europe has known something like this interference,” explains Mr. Cernăuțeanu.

“Before the vote, we work 24/7 to minimize the risks. But we understand very well that Russia will try absolutely all the methods to achieve what it wants.”