Jobs in the balance on the uncertain future of the agreement

In Shona Epz, a clothing factory in the capital of Kenya, Nairobi, the tension is essential.

The industry rifle of robust sewing machines, as well as the chatter of workers, normally fills the plant with a reassuring pace. But today, each sound is tinged with uncertainty, because the future of the company is not clear because of the possible end of a key element of American commercial law.

The African growth and opportunity law (AGOA), incorporating a historic trade agreement that has been franchising of African rights in the American market, in the legislation, in the legislation for 25 years, expires on Tuesday.

However, this policy is in contradiction with the Trump administration record to impose prices.

Envoy from various African countries went to the United States to try to negotiate an extension.

An official of the White House told the BBC that the administration had supported an extension of one year on the program, but that has not yet been announced.

Considered the cornerstone of American-African economic relations, Ogona’s objective was to help the industrialization of the continent, to create a job and to raise dozens of countries of poverty.

It was based on a philosophy for replacing aid by trade.

AGOA has proven to be very precious for countries like Kenya and Lesotho and the fate of thousands of workers, such as Joan Wambui, 29, is linked to his future.

The end of the agreement could spell the end of his work.

Ms. Wambui worked at Shona Epz, helping to sew sports clothes exclusively for the American market, for only six months. In this short period of time, his salary became the pillar of his house. She supports her four -year -old daughter, two sisters at university, as well as her mother.

Losing her job, she said, would affect more than her own life.

“If Agoa expires, where are we going?” Ms. Wambui asks in a worried tone, her hands and feet moving over time on the sewing machine as she covers pieces of fabric.

For her, a regular salary has meant more than income. This meant dignity and the ability to pay tuition fees, keep food on the table and allowed it to wait for a better future.

“It will hit me hard. Starting to look for a new job. In Kenya, it is difficult to find a job, very hard,” she said, folding the piece of fabric that she comes from.

The Kenya clothing industry prospered under AGOA.

In 2024 alone, the country exported $ 470 million (350 million pounds sterling) of clothing in the United States, supporting more than 66,000 direct jobs, three-quarters of which are made by women, according to Kenya Private Sector Alliance, a group of private companies.

Factories like SHONA EPZ have become important sources of employment, especially for young people who have struggled to find stable work in a difficult economy.

“Most people here have been removed from the street,” said Wambui. “They were drug addicts. If it expires, they could go back, and here they are reformed.”

SHONA EPZ does not require new employees to qualify – the company is committed to training those to whom it gives a job.

The absence of clarity on the future of Ogoa has already had an impact on the production of Shona Epz.

Normally, the factory produces almost half a million clothes per month, but this year has dropped to around a third, because buyers retain long-term orders.

Kenya clothing sales were also affected this year by the 10% rate introduced by the Trump administration earlier this year. An Ogoa renewal would not get rid of it, but would not mean any additional price.

“If the extension is not granted, we may have to send people back home and possibly close,” factory director Isaac Maluki told the BBC.

“If we cannot get enough job to support people here, we will have no choice.”

Over the past seven years, SHONA EPZ, which employs 700 people, has invested $ 10 million in the construction of the company.

“If the extension does not occur, we examine the investment of $ 10 million downwards,” said Maluki worried.

Uncertainty extends far beyond Kenya.

Throughout Africa, more than 30 countries are currently exporting more than 6,000 products to the United States on Agoa, ranging from textiles to agricultural products.

The program has been recognized to create jobs, increase industries and give African economies a stronger point in world trade.

But by looking at a future agreement, African negotiators must rethink their approach, according to the expert in commercial policy Teniola Tayo.

“African countries must really understand what they want from the United States and what they can offer, because you have to offer something in exchange for market access,” she said.

African leaders put pressure on Washington intensely.

During the UN General Assembly last week, trade was raised on the agenda.

Menya Minister Lee Kinyanjui revealed that Nairobi was pressure for at least a short extension.

“An ideal situation would be the extension of the AGOA, so that the transitional mechanisms can be put in place,” he said.

At the same time, Kenya is trying to conclude its own bilateral agreement with the United States.

Last week, President William Ruto said he was expecting to sign a trade agreement with the United States at the end of the year while exhorting Washington to extend access to the continent’s rights under AGOA for at least five more years.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa warned in the same way that his failure would have serious consequences for his country.

At the same time, Kenya and others are looking for new markets to reduce surpassing the United States.

The commercial expert Ms. Tayo says that this should include the benefit of the African free trade area.

“When Africans are negotiated with each other, they tend to produce greater value products, more manufactured products compared to simply exporting raw materials,” she said.

But it all takes time. For workers like Ms. Wambui, the deadlines for diplomacy and commercial negotiations feel far from the daily urgency of feeding a family.

It has only one request for Kenyan and American governments: offer young people more opportunities.

“We have ideas and the desire to make a difference. We just need support to show our potential,” she said when she and her colleagues are heading outside the factory for their lunch break.