Populist Babis Czech Babis Eyes Power during the elections, but may need to help extremes

The Czechs go to the polls on Friday and Saturday facing a deterioration of the security situation in Europe and the fears of Russian interference.

Populist billionaire Andrej Babis, 71, is expected to lead the next government, replacing the highly pro-Ukraine pro-Western coalition.

But he will probably need allies to the extremes of Czech policy – and their price will not be cheap.

“We will never drag the Czech Republic to the east. I can absolutely exclude this,” Babis told a crowd of older partisans, gathered around a scene from the ancient Kladno steel town, just outside Prague.

“We were not those who sat with Putin – we were those who expelled the Russian diplomats!” He continued, referring to measures taken during his first mandate after the revelations that the military information of the GRU of Russia had exploded a discharge of Czech ammunition in 2014.

A row of gray heads nodded while the former Prime Minister warmed up on his theme.

“And never – I repeat, never – let’s plan to leave the European Union. Look at what happened to Great Britain!

Andrej Babis himself is also friends with US President Donald Trump.

Many supporters wore a Red Babis red baseball cap sporting the words “strong Cyon” – strongly inspired by the Mag of Trump movement.

The problem for Babis – and this could soon become a problem for NATO and the EU – is that it is unlikely that its ano party will win a global majority.

Instead, he will probably have to train alliances with smaller parties on the sidelines of Czech policy.

Opinion polls and public declarations suggest that his choice of potential allies will be limited to ultra-nationalist SPD, anti-glass motorists and that! – which are an ad hoc coalition of renamed communists, the remains of the social democrats in the past and a blogger in a black hat who calls himself “Pitchfork” (the Czech word for Redneck).

Wednesday evening, during his only tête-à-tête debate with Prime Minister Petr Fiala, Andrej Babis excluded a coalition with the Communists. “I’m going to sign a piece of paper for this purpose here in the studio,” he said.

Several of its potential allies want referendums to leave the EU and NATO.

Ano says it will not happen.

“We criticize the European Union, but we do not want to destroy it, we want to reform it,” deputy chief Karel Havlicek told the BBC.

“And NATO, well, we can criticize a lot about it, but joining NATO was the most important step in the history of the Czech Republic, and our position is to strengthen it,” he continued.

While we were talking about a large inflatable dinosaur is looming on our heads, part of an inflatable castle erected for the ano rally. For older supporters, there were tents offering cups of coffee, free blood pressure controls and red baseball caps.

As I left, they had left.

Throughout the city, the 19 -year -old political science student, Ondrej Kapralek, who is an activist of the Liberal pirates party, is preparing to vote in his first election.

The pirates were part of the central-law government until they leave the coalition on a failed digitization program.

But their political star increases again and could attract disillusioned voters with both the government and the populist or extremist opposition.

“I certainly think we should invest in our security,” said the student.

“It is not only a question of housing, it is not only about the economy, it is not only a question of the EU-all these things must meet for my country to show my generation that they can have a big future here,” he told the BBC.

Like many young Czech progressives, he fears that his country can follow in the footsteps of Robert Fico’s Slovakia or Hungary of Viktor Orban – the members of the EU and NATO, but more and more illiberal and in favor of closer links with Moscow.

“Russia is putting a massive disinformation campaign against the Czech Republic,” said Romanesque security analyst Maca, adding that Russian intelligence services were also considered cyberattacks and criminal fire cases.

He thinks that the presence of respectful parts of Russia in a government led by ano should set alarm bells across Europe.

“These parties are pro-Russian, so they will want what is good for the Kremlin,” he told the BBC.

“They will ask Ano to stop supporting Ukraine, to end the initiative of Czech ammunition, to oppose sanctions against Russia.”

Ano has already said that it would remove the initiative, which has provided 3.5 million artillery shells in Ukraine. They want to replace it with a more transparent diagram operating within NATO limits.

But the potential partners of the party coalition want to go further, with radical reductions in defense spending and the expulsion of Ukrainian refugees.

In recent years, the loyalty of the Czech government – to the EU, to NATO, to the defense of Ukraine – has been unshakable.

If opinion polls are correct, this approach will soon be in question.