If there is no contract in China soon, American soy farmers warn “they will go around completely”

But farmers are worried that time is exhausted quickly to conclude a time agreement to sell one of the harvests of this year to their biggest customer.

The Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, said on CNBC on Thursday that the public could expect a news of “substantial support for our farmers, especially soy farmers” on Tuesday.

The details of the aid package are unknown, but it would have come because the two largest economies in the world could not conclude a trade agreement and China interrupted the purchases of American beans. China, the largest foreign buyer in American soybeans for many years, bought the American beans for the last time in May and did not buy for this harvest season, which started in September.

“Our country’s soy producers are injured because China is, to” negotiate “reasons only, not buying,” Trump wrote in a social article on Truth on Wednesday. “We have made so much money on the prices, that we are going to take a small part of this money and help our farmers.”

“I will meet President XI, from China, in four weeks, and soy will be a major subject of discussion,” wrote Trump.

The soybean that China largely imports for oil extraction and animal feed is an important harvest for American agriculture, as they are the main American food exports, representing approximately 14% of all agricultural products sent abroad and China has bought 25% of all American soybeans in recent years.

American farmers cost $ 60.7 billion in soybeans, or nearly 4.3 billion bushels, during the 2022-2023 marketing year, according to American Soyaan Association. A little more than half have been exported. Illinois is the best state of growth in soybeans, but Iowa, Nebraska and Minnesota are also large producers.

Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping should meet on the sidelines of the annual group of the economic cooperation group in Asia-Pacific, which will be held in late October in South Korea.

In Trump’s First Trade War with China, he gave American farmers more than $ 22 billion in aid payments in 2019 and almost $ 46 billion in 2020, although the latter also include aid -related aid.

Time runs out

Caleb Ragland, a Kentucky farmer who is president of the American Soybean Association, welcomed Trump recognizing the difficulties encountered by farmers. He said actions are needed to prevent many farmers from going bankrupt.

Before the trade war, farmers were already pinched by high costs and low crop prices, he said. Then their greatest client has disappeared.

“It is simply regrettable that we are used as a negotiation currency in this trade war which is not in our own fact,” said Ragland.

He said the time was low for the two governments to conclude an agreement, because China has already ordered soybeans to countries like Brazil and Argentina for deliveries until December and, if there is no soy contract soon, China could completely jump the United States.

“If they get a few months, they are in new soybeans in culture in Brazil and Argentina. And they will go around completely if we are not careful,” said Ragland.

Deal is still likely

China slapped 20% of American soybeans since Trump announced his prices on the world in the spring, which makes incompetent beans non -competitive.

Reprisal prices are in response to Trump’s new import taxes on Chinese products on allegations that Beijing has failed to stem the flow of chemicals used to make Fentanyl as well as Trump’s “Liberation Day” rates, which have been reduced to the 10%reference rate.

Observers say that China could reduce prices on American agricultural products if the White House returns to fentanyl rates. It has not yet happened.

The White House “has not prioritized fentanyl” since this spring, said Sun Yun, director of the Chinese program of the Think Tank Stimson Center based in Washington. She said Wang Xiaohong, Chinese Minister of Public Security, presented herself in Geneva in May, but met any counterpart in the United States to negotiate.

But it is not yet time to harm a soy agreement, she said. “China must still have something to show during the management meeting in South Korea,” said Sun.

Gabriel Wildau, Director General of the Teneo Council, said that a soybean agreement is “the lowest fruit” for the two governments.

“China needs beans, and the United States has to sell them. It costs China nothing to move to American beans and far from Brazil and Argentina,” said Wildau. “If Washington and Beijing cannot conclude an agreement on soybeans, then they do not have much hope of achieving an agreement on more thorny questions such as export controls.”

Argentina is a painful subject for American farmers at the moment because on September 24, Beijing took advantage of a tax day in Argentina and ordered nearly 2 million tonnes of Argentinian products of soy and soy. The tax day came after the United States reported that it would provide a support package of $ 20 billion to help stabilize the economy of the Latin American country.

“This situation was angry with many farmers,” said Ragland. “And even if I do not think that the specific intention was simply to give a large part, give $ 20 billion to Argentina so that they can send soybeans in China. It was the result. And the optics of it looks absolutely terrible.”

Farmers prefer trade to help

Government aid may be necessary to help farmers spend this year if they cannot sell to China, but farmers say they prefer to sell their crops on the market.

“All farmers are proud of what they are doing and they don’t like documents. We prefer to do it with our own hands to do it,” said Iowa farmer Robb Ewoldt.

Meanwhile, farmers like Ryan Mackenthun, a fifth generation farmer in the Minnesota Center-South, say they will do their best to survive.

“It is definitely to tighten the belt, to look at the inputs, to look at the previous investments that I made in fertilizers and to see if I can stretch a year or two to reduce costs but maintain the same yield projections, run equipment longer,” said Mackenthun.