Calm before the storms: the forecasters say that the quiet season of the Hurricane of the Atlantic will not last

In May, the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has planned a season of the Atlantic Hurricane above normal, but so far, it has been relatively tamed.

However, it could end very soon. And people better be prepared, say the experts.

So far there has been Four storms namedMost of them being short -lived, tropical storms: Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter. The latter was formed on August 4 and is currently in the North Atlantic.

Four storms named are slightly higher than the average of 3.2 for this period of the year.

So why does it seem so calm?

“I think calm is one thing in perspective,” said Jennifer Collins, professor of geosciences at the University of Southern Florida in Tampa. “In the past decade, we have had several beginnings early enough, so I think that is why we have a little feeling that it is calm.”

But there is something else.

“Another reason why it seems that it was not very active is that we have had a lot of short -term storms. So when they don’t live very long, it starts to seem inactive,” said Collins.

The tropical storm Andrea only lasted two days, while Barry lasted three. The longest was Tropical Storm Chantal, which lasted five days and brought heavy rains to the Carolines.

But the tropical storm Barry strongly influenced the weather conditions of Texas which caused generalized floods, which led to the death of at least 135 peopleAdded Collins.

Look | Why were the July floods in Texas so deadly?

Flooding efforts in Texas have been distorted by the field, the weather

The United Cajun Navy is one of the groups that help rescue efforts in the center of Texas after serious floods that killed dozens and left many other disappeared. The vice-president of the non-profit group, Brian Trascher, describes some of the challenges of work and several of the factors which, according to them, have made this flood particularly deadly.

Chris Fogarty, director of the Canadian Hurricane Center, said that the simple fact of counting the names of the storms is not a precise representation of the activity of the season.

“There are different ways to measure the activity of the hurricane season,” he said. “There is the number of storms you might have. You could have 30 very weak storms. They could all have all names, but if they are weak, then it is always considered a silent activity, as non -active, even if there are many small storms.”

Unlike the Atlantic, the Pacific Ocean was quite active. There have been eight named storms, four that turned into hurricanes.

“My research has shown that when you tend to have less activity in the Atlantic, we tend to see a little more in the Northeast Pacific, especially towards Hawaii, and they saw a little more activity this year,” said Collins.

Acceleration

Before the start of calm for the hurricanes season has previously occurred.

In 2022, the Atlantic Basin had three storms in June and July, with one – Hurricane Bonnie – transforming into category 5 on the Saffir -Simpson scale. But all the month of August was not one named Storm.

However, tropical storms and hurricanes abounded in September, with tropical depression (a precursor of a tropical storm), two tropical storms and four hurricanes, two of which have become major hurricanes, ranging from category 3 storms with sustained winds from at least 178 km / h to 5 categorical storms with sustained winds on 252 km / h.

So the season can still surprise us again.

When writing these lines, Tropical Storm Dexter is off the coast of Nova Scotia and there are two other areas which, according to the National Hurricane Center American, could develop in the coming days.

Some ingredients are necessary to create a hurricane: wet air, hot water and favorable higher level winds.

But not everyone was present, said Fogarty. It’s like trying to make a flour -free cake.

“For Canada, this activity period is generally more towards the end of August and in September,” said Fogarty. “It’s a bit calm this year so far, but it will certainly change. It’s just a matter of time for models and tropics to move to the Atlantic to allow hurricanes to train.”

In its hurricane forecasts in May, the Noaa planned between 13 and 19 named storms, including six to 10 becoming hurricanes. Among these, three to five were to be major hurricanes. They had 70% confidence in these forecasts.

He told CBC News that he planned to update his forecasts on August 7.

For Collins, she emphasizes that people should not yet lower their guard – even if they do not live on the coast, because there can be interior floods of hurricanes. The top of the Atlantic Hurricane season is around August and September. In addition, rapid intensification of hurricanes has increased in recent years and can be extremely dangerous.

“We see many years of rapid intensification where (the hurricane) considerably drops its pressure in just 24 hours, and its wind speeds are therefore accused very quickly,” she said.

“I expect that we will continue to see some of these seasonal season season. So … I don’t think people should give up.”