Prediction pulse: kalshi, polymarket pari on Hassett for the Fed chair, plus the recession and dildos
Welcome to the very first edition of prediction Pulse, your weekly dive in what people are betting and the big figures that cause these bets.
Why start this now, ask yourself? Well, unless you live under a rock, you have probably noticed that the prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket calmly reshape the way we follow public opinion. In fact, they stole the spotlights of traditional polls. For example, during the American presidential election of 2024, Polymarket left most of the experts and papers in the dust with forecasts which have proven to be more precise than the pros.
Since then, things have done snowball. The XAI of Elon Musk has teamed up with Kalshi. Donald Trump typed the member of the board of directors of Kalshi, Brian Quintenz, to direct the Combo Futures Trading Commission. What about New York Town Hall? He channeled millions in the prediction markets.
This week was not different. From bets to high stakes on the question of whether a recession is looming, at the completely weird market on the dildos thrown at the WNBA games, we have the strengths.
What is on this week’s prediction markets
Kalshi
Trump has once again sent prediction markets to Overdrive, this time with some occasional comments on who could replace Jerome Powell as the next president of the Federal Reserve.
On the rumor mill are Kevin Hassett of the National Economic Council, Kevin Warsh, a former governor of the Fed, Christopher Waller, a governor of the current Fed, and the secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent.
By discussing the Squawk box of CNBC, Trump played favorites, in a way.
“It is very good,” said Trump about Warsh, before adding the type of warning that only Trump can deliver. “Sometimes they are all very good, until you put them in it, and then they don’t do so well. But … I think he’s a very good guy. I would say that Kevin and Kevin, the two Kevins are very good. ”
The market reaction was quite fast. Although it was completely snubbed in Trump’s cries, Waller fired at the top with 47% chance of attracting the role. Hassett slipped at 34% and Warsh, even with Trump praise, drink 14%. The moral of history is that on the prediction markets, sometimes silence speaks stronger than compliments.
At the other end of the spectrum, bettors always debate the question of whether the country is heading to a recession this year. This market has been dragging on for months, but it remains an snapshot revealing the national mood. Kalshi now puts the chances of 12%, decreasing significantly compared to a peak of 64.8% during fear in May. Polymarket depicts a similar table, oscillating at around 14% after reaching 66% at the same peak.
Polymarket
On the polymarket, there is a completely different type of bet attracting attention. Despite the objections of players and coaches, several green sex toys were thrown on the field in the live matches of the WNBA during last week. The cryptography -based prediction market allows people to bet if more of these interruptions will occur, after an anonymous bettor left with more than $ 6,000 among the last illegal blow.
Before the AS of Las Vegas and Golden State Valkyries, Polymarket has already seen thousands of dollars put on if a specific type of sex toy will go to the ground. Friday at noon, the chances were mainly a hundred percent than a dildo would be thrown, in several similar markets. There is even a market on the color of the object in question. Less than one percent of bets think it will be green or yellow.
It may be a matter of a flash in the pan, but the trading volume combined on the current dildo markets of Polymarket has exceeded half a million dollars. This is a perfect example of the way in which prediction platforms can transform viral moments into financial opportunities, even when these moments involve actions prohibited by the leaders of the League. Kalshi remained far from this waste, while some Polymarket bettors seem ready to push the limits to guarantee a victory.
Breaking: the suspect accused of launching a green dildo during the Phoenix Mercury game last night appeared in court.
Kaden Lopez, 18, is accused of having struck someone with the sex toy. Lopez faces at least two accusations, including assault and disorderly driving.
Release the friend pic.twitter.com/yoqvrkbnvm
– Polymarket Sports (@polymarketsport) August 7, 2025
At least arrests are now underway to launch dildos. Hope is that it will dissuade both behavior and bets on it, although the sports polymarket account on X still pleads that the arrested fan should not be in prison.
Even with all the flying money, Polymarket does not make much from these bets because they jump charging costs. It is a classic decision. Use the viral buzz to attract more players. Fun for them, of course. For us? Hard pass. Keep toys in the toy box.
Star image: Canva
The post-print impulse: Kalshi, Polymarket Pari on Hassett for the Fed chair, as well as the recession and the dildos appeared first on Readwrite.
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