The cities of Southeast Asia are at “high risk” of floods and heat waves, thanks to climate change

Vietnam and the Philippines are used to periods of intense rain, but climate change threatens to make these events more serious. Southeast Asia as a whole faces an increasing climate risk, because of its densely populated cities, heavy frequent rains and insufficient infrastructure.

The recent modeling of Zurich Resilience Solutions revealed that six major cities in Southeast Asia – Singapore, Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh -Ville, Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur and Manila – face at least a “high risk” of extreme precipitation, thermal waves and an increase in sea level through the 2040s.

In particular, modeling has noted that Manila, Bangkok, Singapore and Jakarta are among the cities most vulnerable to the climate of Southeast Asia, with critical infrastructures faced with high exposure to several climate risks.

Zurich’s risks modeling has used maritime port data, airports and significant cultural sites, such as the Grand Palais de Bangkok and Fort Santiago de Manila. The analysis was carried out in the SSP2-4.5 scenario, a widely used projection has developed an intergovernmental panel on climate change. The “intermediary” route supposed moderate global attenuation efforts and anticipates a Celsius increase of two degrees of world average temperatures between 2041 and 2060.

“In Manila, the sites are very at risk of extreme precipitation, storm overvoltage, elevation of sea level and floods, threatening trade and cultural preservation,” wrote the authors of the report. Bangkok and Jakarta are also threatened by worst climate change floods.

Zurich notes that governments are already investing to deal with some of these risks. For example, its report pointed out that Singapore added $ 5 billion in Singapore this year (3.9 billion dollars) to its coastal and flood protection to support new infrastructure such as detention tanks, widened channels and high levels of platforms. Ho Chi Minh City also modernizes its drainage systems and expansion of green urban spaces to limit local floods.

Not investing in mitigation could lead to serious financial losses. A recent report of the World Economic Forum and the Singapore International Foundation estimates that the impact of climate change could reduce GDP from Southeast Asia to 25% by 2050.

Another study by Oxford Economics estimates that an increase by 1% of average temperatures could increase food prices in Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines.

Companies in the region also take into account how the financial cost of climate change could reach their own operations.

City Developments Limited (CDL), n ° 139 on Southeast Asia 500, estimated in 2023 that climate inaction could cost $ 120 million in Singapore ($ 93.2 million) by 2030, or almost 4% of its revenues from 2024. CDL is working on another climate scenario to publish later this year.