Asian visitors from Japan fell due to a prediction of manga. Here is why

The interest of visitors to Japan plunged in June, in the middle of a prophecy in a manga which predicted that a “disaster” would strike Japan in July 2025.

The prediction was in a reprint in 2021 of a Japanese comic strip, or manga, entitled “Watashi Ga Mita Mita, Kanzenban” (which translates into “the future that I saw, full edition”) of the artist Ryo Tatsuki.

In the original printing of the book in 1999, the cover page referred to a “disaster in March 2011”.

In March 2011, Japan underwent its most powerful earthquake ever recorded, the great earthquake in Tohoku, which caused nearly 20,000 deaths and the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster.

The Amazon list for reprint said that the author had “new prophetic dreams”, including “the real disaster will come in July 2025”, according to a translation from Google.

CN Yuen, managing director of the Hong Kong travel agency, WWPKG, told CNBC that rumor had been widely broadcast in Hong Kong, where it spread over the consumer media, television networks and through YouTube influencers.

Visitors to visitors to Hong Kong dived 33.4% over a year in June, following a previous drop of 11.2% in May, according to the National Organization for Japan Tourism.

Yuen said his agency had a 50% drop in reservations and requests for information in April and May in Japan compared to last year.

Tourist arrivals from other Asian countries have also experienced slower growth. The arrivals of South Korea increased only 3.8% in June, against 11.8% of May. Taiwan arrivals also slowed down considerably, an increase of 15.5% in May to 1.8% in June.

Japan foreign visitors increased by 24%, on average, from January to May this year, compared to 2024. But the arrivals of June saw only an increase of 7.6%, according to Japan travel statistics.

The WWPKG Yuen said it was used to browse the slowdowns linked to natural disasters, which generally ended after the end of the incident.

But “this time, it’s different, because nothing happened in fact. It is only rumor or a prophecy,” he told CNBC. “This is the first time that we have seen such an incident.”

Hong Kong and the Japanese media reported earlier in July that Hong Kong Airlines had cut flights to certain Japanese cities, including Nagoya.

A Japan Shimbun’s January Shimbun report, citing the country’s headquarters for the promotion of research on earthquakes, also warned that the probability of a megaquare over the next 30 years had reached 80% – a development which, combined with prediction, created a “perfect storm” to dissuade travelers, “said Yuen.

However, the Japanese meteorological agency said: “It should be noted that the issuance of information indicating high potential for an earthquake of Nankai at least does not necessarily mean that we will really hit.”

JNTO data has shown that the share of Asian tourists had dropped from year to year in June, but that of Western countries has increased.

The experts to which CNBC spoke gave various reasons, including cultural reasons.

“The manga is not only entertainment; it is widely read in age groups and carries some cultural authority in certain Asian companies,” said Zilmiyah Kamble, lecturer for hospitality and tourism management at James Cook University.

This, combined with memories of past disasters and the reality of Japan’s seismic vulnerability, means that such warnings “resonate strongly” in the region, she said.

Kiattipoom Kiatkawin, associate professor of hospitality and tourism management of the Singapore management institute, said that the rapid spread of rumors through social media platforms and the collectivist nature of many Asian companies have led to a social amplification of perceived risk.

“This means that even if some people have doubts, the collective response of their community or their peers can significantly influence their decisions, leading to generalized behavioral changes, such as travel cancellations,” said Kiatkawin.

“In this case, a fictitious account amplified by social media could have created a convincing reason, but scientifically unfounded to postpone travel,” he said.

But the two experts also underlined a more ordinary reason: the flexibility of short trips.

Kiatkawin said that the costs of canceling flights and hotel reservations are no longer perceived as a barrier.

“If they do not travel to Japan this time, they can go another time without too many hassles to organize again,” he added.

Kiatkawin said that he does not expect the prediction to affect Japan’s overall perspectives, since prediction is limited in July.

– Kaela Ling of CNBC contributed to this story.