Does Putin play Trump or is Trump playing us?

The Russian sanctions under the President Biden were substantial, but they were insufficient and underestimated, and the military supply deliveries were often late. However, the rhetoric and the actions of this administration were consistent in favor of Ukraine. Troubling, despite the occasional difficult speeches by Trump that we have greeted in the past eight months, it seems that he does not want to have a real lever effect on Putin. Trump had all the cards and abandoned the game while Putin’s imploding economy leaves Russia far from an economic superpower. Other world leaders are now wondering if it is all barking and no bite.

Again, Trump’s senior officials denounce attacks as “flagrants” and that they “threaten the peace” that Trump is pursuing, but Trump refuses to take substantial measures to put Putin or punish Putin for his transgression. Trump must surely know that a verbal wrist slap is unlikely to stop the Russian dictator. Likewise, before the Alaska summit, Trump had threatened new sanctions and prices on Russia if Putin did not accept to end the war in Ukraine, but no sanction and price of this kind has been imposed since. Where are these sanctions and prices promised for a long time?

Likewise, Trump sometimes reflects verbally on the strengthening of support for Ukraine – as when he posted on Truth Social, speculating on the question of whether Ukraine should be allowed to strike deeply in Russia – but his actions do not constantly manage to match his rhetoric, while American aid to Ukraine draws and Europe is increasingly placed the bill.

There is a striking disconnection between what Trump says and what he does – and each time, Trump does not correspond to his rhetorical bellicosity with an act or real pressure on Putin, because Putin continues tirelessly.

Does Putin play Trump, promising progress in a peace agreement that will never come to buy more time to beat Ukraine? Or does Trump play us, swinging waves insurance while letting Putin get away?

The biggest winner

Anyway, it is clear who is the greatest winner of Trump’s inability to conclude the peace agreement he has promised for a long time: Putin wins, and everyone loses. Each day, war continues, Russia continues to gain more land and kill more Ukrainians, helped by the fact that help in the United States for Ukraine decreases while Ukraine is low on ammunition. As the former American ambassador in Russia pointed out, Mike McFaul, there has been no doubt that “President Trump was in the White House, Putin has become more aggressive. There have been more attacks on Ukrainian civilians and the number of drone and missile attacks has increased. ”

There are a lot of things that Trump can do to put Putin to put it if he chooses to do so – a large part of which has threatened or thoughtful, but did not act. The most powerful lever effect might be the tightening of economic pressure on Putin by sanctions and prices. Although the secondary prices recently taken from India for the purchase of Russian oil are a good first step, it is just the tip of the iceberg, with countries like China, Turkey and others that continue to buy ample Russian oil offering Baillette income in Putin. By tightening the screws of the economic house of the cards already in ruins of Putin, Putin could lack money very soon – maybe even by the end of the year. There is a great traction of the Congress for this, in particular the legislation “Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025” co -produced by the Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal, which would impose secondary prices and sanctions on the countries which continue to finance the war machine of Russia.

Business will support that Trump will harden

Trump will note that American companies are united behind him, with no major American company wishing to return to Russia after having retired to the biggest stampede in history in 2022, with more than 1,200 companies that left overnight. We help to Spark Those Mass Exits and Continue to Hear That from Ceos that is interested in Returning Given The Unstable Collapsing Nature of Russia Economy, The Difficult of Doing Business There, the Risk to Executive Lives, Putin’s impulsive expropriation of Private Businesses, the Ease of Substitut Russia’s raw Materials at comparable commodity prices, Elsewher, and the form tiny 1% to 2% prewar returned russia represent for most multinationals while do business there. Some have been alarmed by reports according to which exxon level level officials were engaged in discussions on the canal with Rosneft. It was a diplomatic trick really failed a little more than cosmetic movements that hung before Putin from the improbable perspective of “normalized” relations with the United States after the end of the war. Putin saw through this non -sincere American tactic.

The reality is that, as Exxon’s initiates have confirmed to me, Exxon has little appetite for unreliable Russian oil. Exxon has no incitement to become hostage for Putin’s mercurial whims while engaging in a risk of massive world reputation holds little appeal. It is clearly unprofitable to drill in the Russian Circle of the Arctic, with a much higher marginal production cost than the fields of oil much cheaper and more reliable in Guyana, the Middle East and in the Permian basin in the United States

The contingent of American companies in Alaska was Trump cosmetic appeasement for Russian talks to alleviate Putin – or deceive the public. In reality, they no longer need this additional supply and can no longer afford drilling in the Arctic Circle. This turned out to be not profitable under Rex Tillerson, but the Ukrainian invasion gave them an excuse to withdraw – with BP and Shell. Russia has periodically threatened disputes and even continued its former Exxon partner because American technology is vital to help the ineffective anachronistic Russian extraction systems that cost twice as much as for other OPEP +nations.

Exxon produces approximately 4.5 million barrels per day with 1.5 million (a third of their production) very effectively from Guyana, where it is not even half capacity. Another third of production is from the Middle East (Aramco) and the last third of the United States, where it has also made proven reserves. The prices of crude oil plunging at $ 63 per barrel (WTI) / $ 66 per barrel (Brent), there is little interest in extending the offer of ineffective Russian sources. Trump’s songs of “Drill Baby, Drill” are not the mantra for any oil company. The barons of oil moans while Trump bothering with such ignorance of their real program. “Any hat, no cattle” is the sentence that the real Cowboys of Texas have for the city’s Slickers like Trump who carry rhinestones and claim to be hard and competent when they have no idea of ​​what they are talking about.

Who commits suicide by firing five times?

As an additional botter, it is completely disorienting, if not vertiginous, to have to deal with a constantly evolving distribution of interlocutors, with successive waves of senior frames in Russian energy societies in a way suicide during the term of Putin. This includes Gazprom, Lukoil, Transneft and Rosneft figures which mysteriously fell from the windows, committed suicide somehow by pulling five times in the back or being accidentally picked up by cars.

Simultaneously, Trump has to strengthen military aid for Ukraine. Already, there is an increasing dynamic at the congress, including allies of Trump’s GOP, for another important military aid package to help Ukraine, despite the erroneous cries of isolationists in inferiority and overwhelmed like JD Vance to no longer support Ukraine. Already, there is a bipartite proposal in the Senate for a new package of $ 54.6 billion in new help to Ukraine, which would be the largest assistance package for Ukraine to date.

Despite Trump’s difficult speech, he constantly reached his rhetorical fanfare with a real action to tighten Putin. Trump, who normally likes to create a maximum lever effect for himself, seems strangely little disposed or unable to challenge Putin beyond the verbal pun. Where are the “serious consequences” against Putin that Trump has often threatened, but never implemented?

It is not too late to change that – if things continue at this rate, it will be difficult to say if Putin plays Trump, or Trump plays us. In any case, the United States, the EU and Ukraine are all worse under the confused cowardice of Trump.

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