An asteroid could break in the moon in 2032. This is why we should destroy it

The 2024 -year -old asteroid drew global attention last year when astronomers estimated that he could hit the earth in 2032. Although they have since excluded this possibility, this large space rock has another 4% chance of crashing into the moon.

These are fairly thin chances, but during luck, 2024 years old is found on a collision trajectory with the Moon, the scientific community must be prepared. Astronomers have found evidence suggesting that a lunar impact could eject a huge quantity of micro -reckless debris in low orbit, potentially endangering spaces and astronauts aboard the international space station.

A new study carried out by NASA researchers and several other American institutions presents our options to avoid this worst case. In the article – subject to the Journal of the Astronautical Sciences for Peer examination and made available to the Arxiv preparatory server – The authors assess several strategies to divert or destroy the asteroid before being able to slam in the lunar surface. Their conclusion? It seems to blow it up would be our best bet.

Why we should not divert the asteroid 2024 yr4

Detonation is generally not the favorite strategy. Defining 2024 years would guarantee that no part could have an impact on the moon or earth, while detonation could transform a large predictable threat into many small and unpredictable. All that is said, so that the deviation works, it must be done perfectly – and it is not a simple task given how little we know about the asteroid and the short time that are offered to us.

NASA demonstrated its deviation technique of the kinetic impactor in 2022, when the Dart mission (double asteroid redirection test) struck the asteroid moon dimorphos to change its trajectory because it orbit a larger asteroid called Didymos. Although the mission has succeeded, the deviation of asteroids is easier to say than to do.

To do this precisely, astronomers must know how many 2024 years weighs to calculate the amount of energy necessary to modify its trajectory. This is difficult to estimate with any degree of certainty. The James Webb space telescope measured the diameter of the asteroid in March, finding it about 197 feet (60 meters) wide. But to calculate its mass, astronomers must also know its density, and they do not currently have a clear understanding of the composition of 2024 years.

According to the researchers, the mass of the asteroid could range from 74 million pounds (33 million kilograms) to more than 2 billion pounds (930 million kilograms). This is equivalent to a huge amount of uncertainty about the amount of energy it would take to push 2024 years off course. Being could have serious consequences – potentially deviating the asteroid towards the earth instead.

NASA could launch a recognition mission to refine the estimates of the 2024 -year -old mass, but the best time to do so would be 2028. This only gives the agency to develop the mission – an unprecedented delay. As such, researchers have concluded that deviation missions are not practical to prevent a lunar impact.

The case for destruction

In light of these challenges, the destruction of the asteroid seems to be the most viable option, according to the researchers. They describe some different ways of NASA.

The first is a robust kinetic disturbance mission. It would be similar to the NASA dart mission, but instead of repelling the asteroid, the spacecraft would aim to separate it. Contrary to the impact of dart style, the kinetic disturbance has never been tested before. However, NASA would have a reasonable time to develop this mission, because the next launch window available is between April 2030 and April 2032, according to the researchers.

Alternatively, NASA could simply swim it. Yes, really. This would imply exploding a nuclear device on, near or below the surface of 2024 years to break it into pieces. This has not been tested before either, but it is theoretically possible. The researchers say that the next launch window available for such a mission would be between the end of 2029 and the end of 2031.

We are still seven years old before 2024 YR4 accepts its narrow approach, and it will most likely pass safely by the moon. Despite this, this asteroid offers scientists a rare opportunity to test and refine the strategies to prevent impacts on earth and its natural satellite, ensuring that we are ready to protect our house if the need arises.