CFOS must focus on agility in planning scenarios in the middle of the government’s closure, explains the economist

“Government is closed is a symptom, not history,” said Bridget Gainer, director of public affairs at Aon. “Although Aon’s data show that disturbance is now a constant – geopolitical tensions to regulatory paralysis – most companies always manage it as a unique event.”

The closures can delay contracts, tighten liquidity and reveal how much companies are not prepared to absorb shocks, Gainer said. “What we say to customers is that the planning of resilience is not a reaction – it is a survival strategy.”

Due to the government’s closure, key economic data – such as the September employment numbers scheduled for Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics – will be interrupted. American employers added only 22,000 jobs in August, while the labor market continued to cool. Last month, the Labor Department said that hiring deceased from 79,000 in July. The unemployment rate reached 4.3%, the highest level since 2021.

I asked Gregory Daco, chief economist of Ey-Parthenon, on the impact of BLS not publishing the work numbers on Friday. “The absence of key data such as the report on jobs temporarily blinded business leaders, decision -makers and investors, increasing volatility and strengthening the dilemma of Fed data,” said Daco. This would also amplify economic uncertainty at a time when the economy displays mixed signals, he added.

Regarding the impact on businesses, Daco said that companies are based on official data to shed light on job, investment and pricing decisions. “A power failure of the data induced by the judgment undermines confidence and increases the risks of planning,” he said. “This adds friction at a time when many companies are already sailing in a noisy economic policy and environment.”

ADP publishes a monthly report which provides an snapshot in the employment of the private sector according to its own pay data, which can differ from the official report of BLS jobs. The ADP said on Wednesday that the employment of the US private sector had dropped 32,000 jobs in September. “Despite the strong economic growth that we saw in the second quarter, the release of this month also validates what we have seen on the labor market, that American employers have been cautious for hiring,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson, in a statement.

While the closure continues, financial directors should prioritize agility in scenarios planning, said Daco. With potential delays in economic data and government operations, finance leaders should prepare for market volatility and disturbances in federal contracts, permits or tax treatment, he said.

“The uncertainty generates prudence, but it can also be a strategic advantage – the infirm who remain agile will be better placed to act once the yields of clarity,” said Daco.

Sheryl Estrada
sheryl.estrada@fortune.com

Classification

Daniel Sullivan was appointed financial director of Five below, Inc. (Nasdaq: five), a retail chain. Sullivan has 35 years of experience. He was recently Executive Vice-President and Operation Head at Edgewell Personal Care, initially joining the company as a financial director. Sullivan was previously a financial director of Party City and financial director of Athold USA, as well as CFO and COO of Heineken USA and Heineken International.

Steve Rai was appointed EVP and financial director of Open text corporation (NASDAQ: OTEX), A Cloud and AI company, from October 6. Rai brings more than 30 years of experience. He recently served as a financial director of Blackberry Limited. Before that, Rai held senior financial positions at PMC-Sierra and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.

Severe

E * Morgan Stanley’s trade published his monthly analysis. “In September the strongest on the US stock market since 2010, the E * trade in Morgan Stanley customers was net buyers in the 11 S&P 500 sectors,” according to Chris Larkin, director general of trading and investments.

Although the technological sector is the largest winner in September, the three main sectors of net purchase activity were basic foods (+ 12.66%), public services (+ 12.14%) and consumer discretionist (+ 11.33%).

However, this activity was not necessarily as defensive as possible, noted Larkin. Its evaluation: “Although public service actions are a classic defensive game, an important part of the purchases of last month occurred in the actions of nuclear energy, some of which were among the largest winners of September. In addition, activity in the discretionary consumption sector has largely turned around Megacap actions – both those which have withdrawn in September, and those which displayed megacap ralles.”

Go further

Aon PLC published the 2025 edition of its global risk management survey, now in its 19th year. The survey reveals a sharp increase in risks associated with geopolitical volatility, which has climbed 12 places since 2023 to enter the 10 main global risks for the first time. The three main risks are cyber attacks, interruption of companies and economic slowdown or recovery.

The growth of trade and geopolitical challenges reflects instability in global regions, affecting supply chains, regulations and financial performance, according to the firm. However, only 14% of organizations follow their exposure to the 10 main risks and only 19% use analyzes to assess their insurance programs.

The report also offers a prospective view: by 2028, the cyber-risk should remain the most critical, while artificial intelligence and climate change join the 10 main concerns, strengthening the impact of technology and extreme weather conditions on business.

The results are based on nearly 3,000 responses from risk managers and executives in 63 countries.

Heard

“Each company wants to make breakthroughs with AI. But if your data is bad, your AI initiatives are condemned from the start.”

– Brian Moore, co-founder and CEO of the AI ​​Voxel51 startup, written in a Fortune Opinion article.