Here is what doomsayers are mistaken on the job market, according to a Wall Street veteran

It was then that the payroll increased by 73,000 people last month, well below the forecasts of around 100,000. Meanwhile, the Mayan count was revised from 144,000 to 19,000, and the total of June was reduced from 147,000 to only 14,000, which means that the average gain in the last three months is now only 35,000.

While Mardeni, president of Mardeni Research, admitted in a note on Monday that the report was a shock, he maintained that the job market remains resilient.

“It is difficult to make a positive turn on this news, but not for us!” He wrote.

Yardeni underlined a solid increase in aggregated hours worked and the average work week in the private sector. In addition, private industry wages have also experienced healthy progress and have reached record heights.

Meanwhile, he awarded part of the slowdown in payroll earnings to the lowering of workers instead of declineing the demand for workers.

The active population has stopped growing in recent months in the midst of the repression of Trump’s immigration. At the same time, the gauges for the demand for labor have very closely followed this tendency of supply so far this year, which is an unusual phenomenon, said Mardeni.

“This implies that low payroll gains in recent months may have something to do with the labor supply,” he added. “The demand for labor may have been temporarily weakened by employers who hold hiring until Trump’s pricing disorders.”

On the other hand, JPMorgan economists have interpreted job data as an indication of the lower demand for workers.

Friday evening, in a note, they minimized the increase in wages and average work weeks, while stressing that hiring in the private sector has slowed down to an average of only 52,000 in the last three months, sectors outside the health and stagnant education.

“We have constantly pointed out that a slide from the demand for labor of this magnitude is a recession alert signal,” added JPMorgan. “Companies normally maintain hiring gains thanks to growth downgrades which they perceive as transitional. In the episodes where the workforce slides with growth feedback, it is often a precursor of warming. ”

The note has also warned that the depressed rate of employment growth is unlikely to maintain income gains.

Bank of America said that in his own ticket on Monday, a shock for the demand for labor should lead to a slowdown in wage growth and hours worked. It did not happen. Although the demand is not clear deteriorates faster than the supply, Bofa has said that employment data is more like a supply than a demand shock so far.

For the moment, even if hiring has cooled strongly, there is not yet a sign of mass dismissal, and the unemployment rate has barely changed, bouncing in a tight range between 4% and 4.2% for more than a year.

The economy is always considered as a holder. The GDP of the GDP of the Atlanta Fed indicates continuous growth, although it should be mistaken at 2.1% in the third quarter, against 3% in the second quarter.

The question of supply against demand could be essential in the way the federal reserve reacts or not to job data. Given the big rally on Monday on the stock market on Monday and the continuous decline in treasury yields, Wall Street soon bet on Fed’s rate decreases.

JPMorgan said that job creation is no longer solid, and that combined with the growth of the Trump’s trade war, recent data indicate that the Fed is getting closer to drop rates.

Meanwhile, Bofa has supported its forecasts that the Fed will not abandon the prices this year, and Yardeni also reaffirmed its vision of a “without” scenario.

“It is because we expect the next batch of inflation indicators will show that prices stimulate consumption price inflation, in particular lasting goods,” he added. “We also expect to see more signs of life on the job market.”