Inflation overview: CPI increase as higher prices feed

The basic consumer price index, considered to be an underlying inflation measure because it strips the costs of volatile food and energy, increased by 0.3% in July, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg survey among economists. In June, the basic ICC increased 0.2% compared to the previous month.

Although it has been the biggest gain since the start of the year, Americans – at least those who drive – find compensation for the fuel pump. Cheaper petrol has probably helped limit the global IPC to a 0.2%gain, should the government report show on Tuesday.

Higher American prices have started filtering consumers in categories such as household furniture and recreational products. But a measurement distinct from the inflation of basic services has remained docile. However, many economists expect higher import rights continue to eat gradually.

It is the dilemma for those responsible for the federal reserve that have maintained the interest rates that are unchanged this year in the hope of clarifying whether the prices will lead to sustained inflation. At the same time, the labor market – the other half of its mandate as a double policy – shows signs of losing momentum.

While concerns are devoted to the sustainability of the labor market, many companies explore ways to limit pricing to consumers sensitive to prices. Economists expect government figures to have a solid gain in retail sales in July, the incentives, because the incentives have helped to supply vehicle purchases and the sale of a big day of Amazon attracted online buyers.

Excluding car dealerships, economists have crashed in a more moderate advance. And when they have adjusted price changes, retail sales figures will probably highlight an interest -free consumer expenditure environment.

Among the other economic data during the coming week, a Fed report should show a stagnant factory production, because manufacturers present themselves to the evolution of the pricing policy.

A preliminary commercial truce between the United States and China is expected to expire on Tuesday, but a decision to extend relaxation is still possible.

The Bank of Canada will publish a summary of the deliberations which led it to maintain its reference rate at 2.75% for a third consecutive meeting; He also left the door open to more cuts if the economy is weakening and inflation is contained. The data on sales of houses for July reveal whether sales gains continued for a third consecutive month.

Elsewhere, several versions of Chinese data, raw readings of the domestic product for the United Kingdom and Switzerland, and a possible drop in rate in Australia are among the strengths.

Asia

Asia has an eventful data calendar, led by a wave of Chinese indicators, GDP reports of several economies and a rate of rate closely viewed in Australia. The week will see China credit numbers, which will be assessed for signs that decision -makers’ efforts to revive economic growth are starting to bear fruit. The data on the money supply will offer an additional signal on the underlying liquidity conditions.

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia is ready to reduce policy rates for the third time this year after inflation in the second quarter has still cooled. A gauge of Australian commercial trust due to the same day will offer a timely reading on feeling before the second half. On Wednesday, on Wednesday brings data on Australia wages, followed by the job report.

India reports data from the IPC on Tuesday, which will probably show the prices cooled in July from a year ago. The wholesale prices follow Thursday and will indicate whether the cost of the costs remains stifled.

Trade figures during the week will show how strong the outside sector was strong before Trump imposed an additional 25% rate on Indian products on its Russian energy purchases, bringing the total import tax to 50%.

On Wednesday, the Central Bank of Thailand is expected to reduce rates in moderate price pressures and low economic growth.

King Maha Vajiralongkorn in Thailand has approved the appointment of Vitai Ratanakorn as a new governor of the country’s central bank, capping a month’s selection process that was overshadowed by the concerns concerning government attempts to erode the autonomy of the Bank of Thailand. Vitai should take office from October 1, according to a Royal Gazette notification published on Sunday.

Also Wednesday, New Zealand publishes retail card expenditure data, South Korea publishes its unemployment rate for July, and Japan releases its producer price index – a wholesale inflation gauge.

Friday, the great revelation of China occurs, with a series of activity data of July, in particular industrial production, retail sales, investment in fixed assets and unemployed figures.

Also Friday, Japan publishes preliminary estimates of the second quarter GDP, with forecasts suggesting that the country has probably avoided a recession.

Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan and Hong Kong are among the other economies signaling GDP, offering a wider overview of growth dynamics and external sales in the region.

• To find out more, read Bloomberg Economics for Asia’s full week

Europe, Middle East, Africa

The United Kingdom will once again gain importance with certain key data reports. After the drop in rates of the Bank of England on Thursday, after which the officials said that they were on “alert” for the effects of the second round by a peak of inflation, the salary data will be published on Tuesday. Economists provide for a slight slowdown in wage growth for private sector workers.

Meanwhile, GDP of the second trimester should show a slowdown in economic momentum after a growth in growth at the start of the year, hiding with the opinion of the BOE according to which the economy began to show more soft.

Much of continental Europe will be on vacation on Friday and data can also be rare. The Zew index of investors feeling in Germany comes on Tuesday. In the broader region of the Euro, a second GDP taking, as well as June Industrial Production, will be published Thursday.

In Switzerland, still in shock from Trump’s taxation by a rate of 39%, the initial data on Friday can reveal that the economy suddenly contracted in the second quarter, even before this commercial shock. Investors will also monitor any update on Bern and Washington to a trade agreement after all.

Norwegian inflation is set for Monday. Three days later, the Central Bank of Oslo should maintain its rate at 4.25% after its first post-pandemic drop in June, investors surprised.

Recent data included lower retail sales, an increase in unemployment and darker industrial feeling, although prices are also more sticky. Most economists expect two two -point discounts in Norway this year, in September and December.

Some monetary decisions are also due in Africa:

• On Tuesday, the central bank of Kenya will probably adjust the key rate lower for a seventh consecutive time, against 9.75%, inflation should remain below the median point of 5% of its target short -term range.
• Ugandan decision -makers will probably leave their rate to 9.75% to assess the impact of American prices on inflation and maintain local debt and exchange attractive for investors.
• The Zambia bank could reduce loan costs on Wednesday. Its real interest rate is the highest in six years, with the difference between the political reference and the annual inflation rate at 1.5 percentage points in July after price workforce.
• Namibia can also lower its rate, to 6.5% against 6.75%, in order to strengthen the economy. Inflation is near the beach targets from 3% to 6%.

On Wednesday in Russia, analysts expect inflation below 9% in July, against 9.4% per month earlier.

The Governor of the Turkish Central Bank, Fatih Karahan, will present the last inflation prospects in 2025 on Thursday during a quarterly meeting.

And finally, Friday in Israel, inflation should take place at 3.1% in July, against 3.3% a month earlier.

• To find out more, read the full week of Bloomberg Economics for Emea

Latin America

The Central Bank of Brazil obtains the week with its survey at the center expectations of the market. Analysts have slowly reduced their consumer price forecasts, but all estimates remain much higher than the 3% target thanks to the forecast horizon.

Tuesday data should show that Brazilian consumer prices for July fell in June by 5.35% in June, justifying the central bank rate rate at 15% on July 30.

The Central Bank of Chile publishes the minutes of its meeting on July 29 on Wednesday, during which political decision-makers delivered their first reduction of 2025, voting unanimously for a reduction of a quarter of a point, to 4.75%. The post-decision declaration has maintained the advice for more monetary relaxation in the coming quarters due to a low labor market and the slowdown in inflation.

Also on Wednesday, the Argentine report in July for consumer prices consumption in July. Analysts interviewed by the Central Bank expect a slight increase in monthly reading of 1.6% of June, the annual sliding figure being down 39.4%.

The inflation in the capital of the megapacity of Peru of Lima was lower than the middle of 2% of the target range of the central bank all year round, but the start of the consensus expects the central bank to keep its key rate unchanged at 4.5% for a third consecutive meeting.

Colombia is almost sure to have displayed an eighth consecutive growth quarter in the three months to June.

The country’s central bank, which stressed in June that the economy had grown, predicts a 2.7% increase in GDP this year and 2.9% in 2026, compared to 1.7% in 2024.