October 7, 2025

Nvidia will move the market this evening in a test of the alleged bubble AI

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Good morning. After the bell today, Nvidia will publish income. And in the world of technology and beyond, one thing is clear: Nvidia’s income is no longer just Nvidia. The 4 billions of quarterly financial dollars of the flea manufacturer have become a decisive test for the BOOM of the AI ​​and, by extension, for the entire stock market. Constituting 8% of the S&P 500 index weighted by market capitalization, and with an unrivaled grip on fleas that feed generating AI, Wall Street now treats Nvidia’s results more as a macroeconomic indicator than as a bulletin card on a single company. The announcement of profits has even become a cultural phenomenon with surveillance celebrations.

In the three months which followed the last time that the company gave investors a quarterly update, in May, the shares of Nvidia jumped 35%. Wall Street analysts are looking for NVIDIA’s turnover in T2 to increase by 53% in annual sliding to $ 46 billion, at the end of NVIDIA directives, with a profit per share of $ 1.01. Sales of the data center, the NVIDIA activities node is expected to reach $ 40 billion.

And uncertainty about Nvidia’s Chinese activities continues to loom. After having previously prohibited Nvidia from selling in China, earlier this month, NVIDIA and AMD concluded an agreement with the Trump administration to grant export licenses in exchange for a 15% income sharing agreement on flea sales in China. “I suspect that they will not count, nor predict that the income of China, there is too much uncertainty,” predicts Karl Freund, founder and principal analyst at Cabrian-Ai Research.

Beyond geopolitics, Nvidia is confronted with another challenge: tension surrounding what is already the most monitored winning event of the season has been reached by recent agitation on what some people worry a dangerous financial bubble in AI actions. This would strike at the heart of Nvidia’s affairs and its stratospheric evaluation – the company is negotiated more than 40 times its expected profits – which are based on the constantly increasing demand for its powerful GPUs. Nvidia’s growth is highly concentrated in a handful of cloud giants, including Meta, Amazon, Google and Microsoft, as well as highly funded IA startups like Openai. If these companies slow down their expenses, Nvidia could suddenly lose its greatest buyers. And with the actions of Nvidia having won so much in recent months, a lack of Wednesday, or prudent advice linked to restrictions in China, could send actions from Nvidia – or else the wider market – in the beach.

Let the Watches start.Sharon Goldman

Contact the CEO every day via Diane Brady in Diane.brady@fortune.com

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Future S&P 500 were flat this morning pre-market, after the closure of the 0.41% index yesterday. Stoxx Europe 600 was flat at the start of trading. The FTSE 100 of the United Kingdom increased by 0.11% at the start of negotiations. Nikkei 225 from Japan increased by 0.33%. CSI 300 from China dropped by 1.49%. South Korea Kospi increased by 0.25%. Nifty 50 of India fell 1.02% before the end of the session. Bitcoin increased to $ 110.6,000.

Around the river

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The youngest self -taught billionaire in the world says that the secret of conclusion agreements is to exploit the greed of investors and the fear of missing by Dave Smith

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