Poland says it has found 14 Russian drones on its territory. How will NATO react?

As soon as the details began to emerge that Warsaw and NATO scrambled planes to defend itself against several Russian drones flying in Polish airspace, questions were held to find out if it was a deliberate foray into Moscow and the way the intergovernmental alliance would respond.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the country was “the closest that we have been to open the conflicts since the Second World War”.

The government invoked article 4, under which it may require consultation with NATO members.

Although his allies aligned themselves to condemn Russia, they also took care not to label it as an attack, signaling that it is not a situation which justifies invoking the collective measure of the defense of article 5, which stipulates that an attack on one is considered an attack on all NATO.

The Polish government has been on alert since neighboring Russia launched its large -scale invasion of its Ukraine neighbor in 2022. Russia denied that the incident was intentional, but it represents an unprecedented intrusion. And while NATO is thinking about its response, it faces Moscow’s difficult balance in Moscow attacks, while not inviting additional escalation.

Collateral damage

Poland shares a border of more than 500 kilometers with Ukraine and has already experienced collateral war damage to the latter with Russia. The same year, the Kremlin invaded Ukraine, two Polish residents were killed when a Ukrainian air defense missile took place out of course.

In this most recent incident, during a Russian mass drone attack against Ukraine overnight, Poland said that 19 objects have entered its airspace and that its air force, supported by NATO, shot those which represented a threat.

Polish officials say that at least 14 drones were found in the country’s territory, including one who crashed into the roof of a house in eastern Poland. Others have been found in rural fields.

Most civil servants and many experts said they did not believe it was capricious drones, but rather an intentional act by a kremlin surveying.

“”There is too much for it to be an accident or to simply be the result of a scrambling (drone), “said Patrick Bury, principal assistant professor at the University of Bath.

“One or two, of course, but it’s just too much.”

Warsaw has already blurred planes due to apparent air threats from Russia, and he accused Moscow of Make a hybrid warincluding orchestrating a criminal fire on its territory.

“I think there is a crawling account of the Polish government as to the place where we are currently, in terms of potential Russian attack against NATO territory,” Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, Policy Bunge based in Warsaw at the European Council for Foreign Relations, said.

“Whether cyber attacks, disinformation, electoral interference or provocations, we have seen the whole range of hybrid war tactics they have.”

Prochwicz Jazowska stressed that what happened overnight is the first time that NATO country has directly shot down Russian military weapons on NATO territory.

Prime Minister Mark Carney called Russia’s actions “unpredictive and climbing“Adding that countries would remain vigilant against Moscow’s attempts to expand and extend the conflict.”

US President Donald Trump, in one of his typical reflections on social networks, published: “What is Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones?” We have gone. ” It is not clear what he meant and he has not yet developed more.

Trump met with Polish President Karol Nawrocki later Wednesday. In an article on social networks, Nawrocki said he consulted NATO allies and that all the conversations have confirmed a unified position.

Russian drones of Gerbera

Analysts who have seen photos of drones say they look like the Russian gerbera model, a relatively cheap drone designed to look like the most powerful Shahed drones that often target Ukrainian cities with larger warheads.

The gerbera is lighter and plywood and foam. It has often been deployed to act as a lure, intended to overwhelm the air defenses.

It can transport an explosive payload, but a much smaller amount than the Shahed. Some of its models also have recognition capacities.

“If you wanted to map and test the Polish and air defenses of NATO, it would be a good way to do so in the midst of a great attack on Ukraine, which occurred last night,” said Bury.

It provides that a NATO response could include other air defense systems along the eastern flank of the Alliance, and also wonders how drones were able to go so far in Poland before being intercepted.

For its part, the Russian Defense Ministry said that it had made a drone attack on military facilities in western Ukraine overnight, but said it was not planned to achieve objectives in Poland.

He did not deny that he violated Polish airspace, but said that his drones “who would have crossed the border” with the country had no more than 700 kilometers.

The drones have been found in a number of locations in Poland, including near the Bélarus, which Russia previously used as a launch for attacks.

Minsk said that he killed drones which “lost their trace” following an electronic jamming. Officials said Belarus had warned Poland and Lithuania about drones.

Stimulating defense

With Russia showing no sign of its war in Ukraine, Poland should spend 4.7% of its GDP in defense this year – a higher proportion than any other NATO member.

Prochwicz says that the government is trying to specify to the population that its high defense expenses are justified.

He also tried to convince his allies to help him build an even stronger soldier.

“I hope this will lead to a broader strategic conversation on the way NATO … aims to react to other provocations and incursions … which will certainly happen.”

In his evening video speech, Ukraine President Voludymyr Zelenskyy said that Europe should work on a joint defense system and that Ukraine could provide assistance and expertise on how to intercept drones.

“The Russians are testing the limits of what is possible. They test reactions,” said Zelenskyy.

“They monitor how the armed forces of NATO countries work, which they can do and cannot do yet.”