Prediction pulse: Kalshi and Polymarket face the competition of Prophet Arena, as well as the speech of Jerome Powell
The prediction markets themselves had another lively week. Kalshi has launched new NFL brilliant contracts, even though lawyers have continued to bring prosecution more quickly than you can say “get rid”.
This time, it was a second tribal challenge, aimed at keeping Kalshi out of tribal land. But the real torsion came from the NCAA, which finally took a look at the head above the parapet and marked something in the integrity and prediction markets after Robinhood launched the professional football and college prediction markets via its application.
NCAA declaration in response to Robinhood offering university football prediction markets:
"The integrity of the sport is essential for the NCAA, and we are deeply concerned about the unregulated and unprotected markets which constitute a threat to the integrity of competition and the safety of student-athletes. We will…
– Pat Forde (@bypatforde) August 21, 2025
Tim Buckley, Vice-President Director of External Affairs of the NCAA, made us the usual formal declaration: “The integrity of sport is essential for NCAA, and we are deeply concerned about the unregulated and unprotected markets which constitute a threat to the integrity of competition and the security of student-athletes.” He also promised that NCAA would continue to work with industry leaders to “ensure railing and regulations”.
All this seems good, until you notice some missing ingredients. First, Kalshi is in fact regulated. You may not like how it is regulated, and you may think that the CFTC plays the role of the most sleeping hood in the world, but technically, it is the regulations. Polymarket, for the record, cannot still serve legally American users, so the NCAA does not yet need to lose sleep on this part.
Kalshi even has an integrity partner, IC360, although it is a voluntary handshake, not a regulatory requirement. So when the NCAA says that it wants to “work with the leaders of the industry to help ensure the railing”, what does that mean? Because Spoiler Alert – No regulations arrive. Even if the CFTC woke up tomorrow with a sudden passion for sports contracts, we would be years of a real rules book.
Thus, the NCAA is found with the possibility of reviewing directly with Kalshi and her friends. It is not exactly a safe bet. And in the meantime, the markets are advancing anyway. What should Kalshi prevent accessories on university athletes? Not much. The CFTC is not going to gallop on a white horse to protect March Madness. And the existing surveillance of Kalshi does not shout the “line in the sand”.
And Polymarket is not about to sit forever. Crypto.com has even tried prediction -style betting. NCAA opponents are increasing as heads on a hydra, and all that the NCAA has brought to the fight so far is a severe press release.
To worsen things, the prediction markets are not the only problem to knock on the door. There is the small question of “general predictive intelligence” fueled by AI, which resembles the intrigue of a techno-thriller but could end in turbocharger markets in a way that the NCAA has not even started to imagine.
In short, the NCAA can continue to twist the hands of integrity. But unless it accelerates things, it may become the organization that was “deeply worried” while everyone started to bet on the question of whether the quarter-back endors too many in the morning.
What is on this week’s prediction markets
Kalshi
Kalshi simply cannot escape the Fed drama these days and the last obsession is the speech of Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Wyoming, where central bankers in the world come together to talk about the store between August 21 and 23. Powell, still the president of the Fed for now, has the non-enviable task of publicly explaining a basement of the American economy.
The markets are desperate for Powell to drop clues. For five consecutive meetings, the Fed held stable prices, ignoring Trump’s cries for immediate cuts. The decision -makers want more clarity on what the President’s prices, the deportation is growing and the general unpredictability really does the economy. At Jackson Hole, Powell should sketch the prospects, his latest speech at the haiser of the annual central banker before his mandate was exhausted in May.
Naturally, Kalshi users already exchange on the precise words that Powell will use. More than $ 235,000 was married on terms ranging from the obvious “symposium” to the cheesy “risk balance”. A strike of 57% of traders bet that Powell will talk about layoffs.
Meanwhile, the Vultures turned on Powell’s successor. Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman and Trump’s ally, Kevin Hassett, are all considered as contenders for the Powell chair if Fed’s musical chairs are starting seriously.
According to a note, the prediction markets are suddenly animated by action on the next candidate for the Democratic presidential election. California Governor Gavin Newsom, although he was under fire for allegedly blocked a casino after pocketing $ 2 million in tribal donations, has seen his ratings soar. It now sits 28%, comfortably ahead of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 13%, with almost $ 17 million betting on the whole. Pete Buttigieg, for the moment, is jogging in a single figure at 9%.
Breaking: Gavin Newsom’s ratings to be the push of the Democratic candidate of 2028 to a new summit of all time pic.twitter.com/puuwnpr8g
– Kalshi (@Kalshi) August 20, 2025
Newsom, it seems, opened the Trump game book. In recent days, he posted at the top of Mount Rushmore, has been prayed by Tucker Carlson, Kid Rock and a winged Hulk Hogan, and has taken writing in all the caps on social networks. “He tries to imitate President Trump,” Steve Bannon told Politico, and the markets, at least, begin to think that it works.
And if that was not enough, the prediction markets collide with artificial intelligence. Enter Prophet Arena, a project from the SIGMA laboratory of the University of Chicago, which tests the models of AI not on previous data but on unrelated live events, many have directly removed from Kalshi and Polymarket. “By anchoring assessments in unresolved and real events, Prophet Arena provides level playing field,” wrote the researchers.
Presentation of the Prophet Arena – The IA reference index for general predictive intelligence.
In other words, can AI really predict the future by connecting today’s points?
What makes him special?
– He cannot be hacked. Most benchmarks saturate over time, but here, the models are confronted with Live, invisible … pic.twitter.com/rhwr5wlu9d
– Prophet Arena (@prophetarena) August 17, 2025
Until now, the machines seem to hold the blows. GPT-5 is at the top of the ranking with a brier score of 82.21%, while the O3-Mini of Openai is being profounded when its calls are converted to simulated Paris. Kalshi himself is dabbing in AI, recently connected to Grok by Elon Musk, while Polymarket began to spit summaries generated by the AI ​​of his markets.
If the machines continue to improve, they could eliminate all the feelings and the second guess that are driving human traders. No intestinal feelings, no mood swings, just cold forecasts. In this case, the old “wisdom of the crowd” could soon share the scene with the wisdom of the algorithm.
Polymarket
If Kalshi keeps things buttoned, Polymarket happily leans in the show of the appearance of Powell by Jackson Hole. True to its social and buzzing reputation, traders have pushed the limits of what matters as a market. About 83% believe that Powell will mention the pandemic, 63% bet on unemployment, and the most popular bet of all is whether he will take the trouble to say “hello”.
Behind the most played bets, the real question of whether Powell’s speech will signal the last Fed policy. Investors are mainly waiting for a quarter of a quarter of a point in September, but as Deutsche Bank analysts warned it earlier this week, the address could end up “creating uncertainty” rather than cleaning the air.
Star image: Canva / Grok
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