Countries around the world are expecting a financial crisis on Monday. And few are more vulnerable than Canada.

That’s because three-quarters of Canada’s exports to the world are to the United States, and US President-elect Donald Trump is threatening trade sanctions. the day he will take office.

We know they are planning 100 main rules from opening day, and it is guaranteed to include sales and margins.

What we don’t know is the size, risk and structure of the promised product. Even Trump’s Republican allies on Capitol Hill aren’t convinced, and public comments suggest the plan won’t be finalized by Monday.

“In short. what I’m hearing is: ‘We don’t know what they’re going to do,’ “Canadian Ambassador Kirsten Hillman told CBC News, describing her discussions with Republican lawmakers and state governors.

“I want to say we know what’s going to happen. I suspect we won’t know until Monday,” he said.

Here are five things to look out for.

What rule will they use?

The President has separate powers to implement tariffs under US trade laws. No president in modern history has used these laws as aggressively as Trump threatens.

Trump will use different tools at different times, in different countries and markets, Canadian-US trade expert Laura Dawson predicts.

“I think they’re going to try all the options,” Dawson said.

• This Sunday, Cross Country Checkup asks: What does another Trump presidency mean to you? How seriously do you take his tariff? Write it down this form and you can appear on the show or have your comment read on air.

Possible tools including Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act, which allows tariffs for national security purposes, as Trump has done with steel and aluminum.

Then there is Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act – it allows the president to punish unfair trade practices, as Trump and President Joe Biden did. everything is done and China.

Another part of the 1974 law, Section 122, allows tariffs to reduce trade disputes. It is worth noting here that Trump has always complained about trade imbalances.

Finally, there is a tool that has never been used before: the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), in the event of an emergency.

Although no president has ever used the 1977 law to impose a tax, it has an attractive quality for a conservationist: it works quickly.

Establishing the IEEPA first requires the president to declare a national emergency; Trump made a clear statement when he complained about the broken border with Mexico and Canada.

“If they want to push the boundaries of what is acceptable, they can try this,” said Simon Lester, a trade lawyer, analyst and official at the World Trade Organization.

“They can just say, ‘Hey, IEEPA gives us this authority. We’re going to put a 10 percent tax on the world, or on these specific things. Let’s see what the courts have to say about that,’” said Lester.

All other laws have limitations: Sections 232 and 301, for example, require a study, and the use of Section 122 is limited to 150 days. Trump can turn to these laws for his other actions.

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Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association, says that the automotive industry in North America is so integrated that ‘there are no borders in cars.’ He says US president-elect Donald Trump is ‘trying to derail the negotiations as soon as possible.’

How big will he be?

There’s a reason estimates of the economic damage vary widely: Trump has been less consistent in discussing the extent of his tariffs.

They are now threatening 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which would be devastating and, if applied to the entire economy, could cause a recession.

But he’s been on the map since he began his latest presidential campaign, and even in recent weeks he’s bounced between various tax controversies.

“We have heard 10 percent in the world (prices), 20 percent in the world, 60 percent in China, 40 percent in China, 100 percent in cars, 200 percent, 1,000 percent,” said the US federal budget. an expert Marc Goldwein.

“I think we all laughed at that, but I get it,” Goldwein said.

They say Trump made it clear in his public comments that he wasn’t fixated on any number. He has started using tariffs to achieve other things.

But any price needed in Canada will be long-term, according to Dawson, who says that’s true even if the prices are only there for a short time.

“It moves money south. It stops production decisions,” he said.

He is already hearing international companies relocating from Canada to the US. Honda is public speaking about reducing production in Canada.

How fast will they run?

There are reasons to believe we won’t get the full picture on Monday. It has been variety media leaking about the ongoing controversy in Trump’s court, and the congressional nominee for finance secretary said that all the details are still being worked out.

Also, there are benefits to walking slowly.

One is to measure the performance of the market, without risking Day 1 of his leadership. With this in mind, some sponsors are he says urging Trump to start with a small tariff, and raise it gradually by two percent every month.

Scott Lincicome, a business attorney and analyst, expects a gradual increase. He says he sees little action on Day 1: perhaps China’s fiscal stimulus, including an announcement to introduce an additional tariff plan.

For example, he said, Trump can declare a national emergency under the IEEPA, or start a multi-month investigation under section 232 or 301. Then he will use it as a bargaining chip.

“These things give Trump the ability to run around the world to threaten everybody without hurting the economy. I mean, it’s going to hurt the economy — invisibly. Uncertainty about trade policies costs money,” Lincicome said.

“(This puts) Trump in the middle of the Trump Show, without forcing Ford Festivas from Mexico and car parts to BMW in South Carolina.”

Another slow-moving debate: the budget process. Later this year, congressional Republicans are preparing a tax cut bill.

It’s complicated and involved process for bypassing the three-fifths rule of the Senate and passing the budget bill by the majority.

For taxes to be permanent, the money is not allowed to add to the deficit; tariff rates it would helpaccording to a paper written by Republican lawmakers.

It’s a long shot. Congressional Republicans are now insisting that this is not their plan. And enough of them still don’t like the tariffs that trying to enact them in long-term law could kill the bill in a close vote.

“Taxes will not be raised,” Lincicome said.

But it’s too early to tell for sure, in Goldwein’s opinion. He says Republicans are desperate to pass taxes and, in his opinion, “They’ll try anything.”

What is Trump’s purpose here?

There are three goals for Trump’s tariffs, the Treasury secretary-designate told a Senate hearing last week.

One is to regulate non-trade practices, whether by industry or country, said Scott Bessent, who specifically mentions China and steel.

Second: raising money. “For the federal budget,” said Bessent, the economist.

And finally, there is the art of collaboration. “For negotiations,” he said, explaining that the tariffs could be used as a tool to help other countries instead of sanctions, which Trump said he believed were overused.

Just look at how Canada responded. The threat of tariffs prompted Canada to announce a laundry list of laws related to border security, immigration, fentanyl trafficking and organized crime.

Besent did not specifically mention Canada. But he also mentioned Mexico and fentanyl when he talked about the price tag as a way to communicate.

What can stop Trump?

Don’t count the courts. Business experts interviewed on the subject, and more to writemention it a lot unexpected that lawsuits can win against Trump.

Judges often decide the president on national security and tariff issues, he said. So did Congress, after expanding these presidential powers into legislative powers during the Cold War.

If there is a defense against Trump – check every one – look elsewhere. In Lincicome’s opinion, the biggest one is the market.

Trump will be loathe to base his administration on the stock market crash under economic headlines, Lincicome said.

And the market is not expecting high prices, based on the current situation. In general, Mr. Lincicome said, he expects prices in China, and for a number of difficult products.

“Not the world’s largest price. Not 25 percent of the price of avocados from Mexico,” Lincicome said. “(Trump) wants to avoid a million stories about Trumpflation. About guacamole prices going up before the Super Bowl,” he said.

“I think it will be like a check.”

To be clear: if Trump goes ahead, lawsuits will fly. But even if the lawsuits are successful, it could take months or years to be dismissed, according to Lincicome.

“If it goes through the courts, then it has already been destroyed,” he said.