Privail of prediction: Lisa Cook faces Trump Challenge, Trump Jr. plays the two markets, and Taylor Swift transforms the polymarket in a pay day
This week in the prediction markets, Donald Trump Jr. managed to secure a seat on both sides of the table. The man officially joined the advisory ranks of Polymarket while also being in the moonlight in Kalshi. We imagine the little clumsy conversation when the two companies find themselves at the same cocktail.
Polymarket made the splashing announcement that Trump Jr. was not only part of the Advisory Council, but that his investment company, 1789 capital, had invested money in the company. In Kalshi, they reminded us that Trump Jr. has been in an advisory role since January, although Ixios noted dryly that it was a paid concert rather than an investment. In other words, collect a place, consulting the costs of the other.
Delighted to welcome @DonaldjtrumpjrFunds @ 1789 capital As a strategic investor in Polymarket before our American launch.
Don will also join our advisory council.
Assemble the Avengers. We come home
pic.twitter.com/w6mdzuocxv
– Shayne Coplan
(@shayne_coplan) August 26, 2025
If you are confused as to the way the same person can advise the two largest players in a niche industry who thrive on the bets on whom then sneeze in the congress, you are not alone. But then again, we live in a time when the conflict of interest is more a conversation starter than a career meeting.
Polymarket, for its part, is preparing for its great return to the United States after a end of the Futures Trading Commission. The CFTC had reprimanded the company in 2022 for allegedly directed unregulated prediction markets, which is essentially the equivalent of the financial regulator to send you to your room without dessert.
Now, with its acquisition of an approved exchange this summer, Polymarket hopes to return to the United States in a few weeks, or perhaps fall if the paperwork moves at the speed of the government.
The only thing more difficult to predict than the next elections is how Trump Jr. plans to balance his new double life. Fortunately, two companies are ready to let you bet on it.
What is on this week’s prediction markets
Kalshi
For reasons known only to the gods of finance, Kalshi users are again stuck to the federal reserve. Last week, it was interest rate, this week, it is whether the governor of the Fed, Lisa Cook, will be started before the end of the year. The market gives it a chance of 31%, which is the prediction market to speak for “probably not, but it would not be fun.”
The drama stems from President Trump’s announcement that he had dismissed Cook, accusing him of mortgage fraud. In the great tradition of Trump’s statements, he was accompanied by a social media letter spending his alleged sins.
Just in: Fed governor Lisa Cook, who was “dismissed” by Trump, says that she will continue to exercise her functions
Only 39% like it is absent this year pic.twitter.com/xrqjoaouzh
– Kalshi (@Kalshi) August 26, 2025
The law, however, indicates that the governors of the Fed can only be removed for good reason, generally interpreted as seriously serious conduct, and not a mortgage paperwork. Legal experts have aligned themselves to politely suggest that the president may find it difficult to make this stick.
Meanwhile, Kalshi has obtained an unexpected boost from the president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, who joyfully tweeted on the platform market to find out if the country’s bitcoin reserve will reach a billion dollars by the end of 2025.
I could do the funniest thing right now …
– Nayib Look (@nayabkele) August 27, 2025
The chances of Kalshi went from 20% to 38% after Bukele hinted that he “could do the funniest thing at the moment”, a sentence that has undoubtedly made its Minister of Finance and the International Monetary Fund to reach aspirin.
In order not to be outdone, Polymarket quickly listed its own version of the bet, where the chances are higher at 43%. Apparently, nothing motivates the world prediction market industry as a president of Bitcoin with a twitter habit.
Polymarket
In order not to be excluded from Lisa Cook’s drama, Polymarket has its own market on the question of whether it will be released by the end of 2025. The bettors give it only 28%, a slight notch lower than the taking of Kalshi. Cook herself postponed Trump’s dismissal letter, arguing that the moves “for the cause” have to do with real fault in office rather than in his past mortgage documents.
Polymarket merchants also see little chance that Jerome Powell was dismissed in 2025, evaluating his early release at only 10%. The message is clear: investors think that the independence of the central bank has a stronger spine than the headlines suggest.
But the jewel of the Crown of Polymarket this week had nothing to do with the Fed and everything to do with the annular of Taylor Swift. A user, who is called “Romanticpaul”, saw the writing on the Instagram wall before the rest of us. Less than 24 hours before Swift and Travis Kelce announced their commitment, Romanticpaul instructed “yes” actions of the couple forcing the knot by the end of the year.
As the couple published their coordinated selfies, they were seated on a benefit of 153% of more than $ 3,000. The speed at which betting polymarkets pivoted for betting on pregnancy times suggest that Swifies can exceed Wall Street in their use of alternative data.
Of course, polymarket cannot resist wandering in darker corners of speculation. The platform now offers bets on the question of whether the Houthi rebels will successfully attack another ship by August 31.
The market appeared barely two weeks after real strikes killed at least five seafarers, which led to the indignation of human rights and maritime transport industry. Critics are calling for odious contracts, accusing the platform of normalizing the monetization of violence.
Despite the conviction, the volume has already exceeded $ 23,000, traders buying “yes” shares for fifteen hundred.
This is the kind of bet reminds you that the prediction markets are not only public curiosity mirrors but also its worst pulses. For each romantic pavement on a wave of celebrity gossip, there are other ready to bet if the missiles will fly.
Featured image: Canva / Federal reserve / Grok
Prediction publisher: Lisa Cook faces Trump Challenge, Trump Jr. plays both markets, and Taylor Swift transforms Polymarket into a pay day first appeared on Readwrite.
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