Russia remains silent on Trump’s nuclear movement

Could it be the first time in history, a spout of social media has triggered nuclear climbing?

President Donald Trump, offended by the posts of the former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, said that he had ordered two nuclear submarines to get closer to Russia.

So how will Moscow react? Are we on the path of a nuclear dead end between America and Russia? An internet version of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis?

I doubt it, judging by the initial reaction in Russia.

The Russian media were rather disdainful of Trump’s announcement.

Addressing the Journal of Moskovsky Komsomolets, a military commentator concluded that Trump “threw a anger crisis”.

A retired lieutenant-general told Kommersant that the American president’s speech on the submarines was “Blather devoid of meaning. This is how he kicked”.

“I am sure that Trump has not really given order (on the submarines),” suggested a Russian security expert in the same article.

Kommersant also mentions that in 2017, Trump said that he had sent two nuclear submarines to the Korean peninsula as a warning to North Korea.

However, shortly after, Trump held a meeting with the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

So, oddly, could Donald Trump’s latest underwater deployment be a precursor to an American-Russian summit?

I wouldn’t go so far.

But the reaction of the Russian authorities was interesting.

At the time of the editorial staff, there was none.

Not kremlin. Not from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Neither the Ministry of Defense.

And I have not seen any announcements on the Russian nuclear submarines positioned closer to America.

This suggests that Moscow still studies the situation and works what to do, is that Moscow does not feel the need to react.

The Russian press reaction that I mentioned earlier suggests that it is the latter.

Trump has fought with Medvedev on social networks for several days.

After the American president reduced his deadline by 50 days for Russia to end his war in Ukraine less than two weeks, Medvedev posted that Trump “played the ultimatum game with Russia … Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war”.

Trump replied: “Tell Medvedev, the former failed Russian president who thinks he is still in power, to pay attention to what he says. He enters a very dangerous territory.”

Medvedev’s next article contained a reference to “Dead Hand”, the automatic nuclear reprisal system developed in the Soviet Union.

Obviously, it did not go well with the head of the White House.

When he was the president of Russia, between 2008 and 2012, Medvedev was considered a relatively liberal figure.

“Freedom is better than no freedom,” he was quoted.

But it has become more and more fellow. Since the large-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia, he has acquired a reputation for bombed and anti-Western publications on social networks. Most of them have gone unnoticed, because it is not considered the voice of the Kremlin.

Suddenly, he was noticed: by the President of the United States.

And not just noticed. He was just under Trump’s skin.

It is one thing not to like an article on social networks. We were all there.

But not to hate it so much, you deploy nuclear submarines is like an exaggeration.

So why did Trump do it?

Here is Trump’s own explanation of his interview with Newsmax: “Medvedev said certain things that are very bad, speaking of nuclear. When you mention the nuclear word, my eyes light up and I say that we will be better to pay attention, because it is the ultimate threat.”

But Medvedev has long been accused of nuclear saber via social media. It’s nothing new.

What is clear is that Trump took recent Medvedev messages very personally and reacted accordingly.

Could there also be a strategy at stake? Unpredictability feels a large part of the way of doing Trump, in business and in politics; Make unexpected decisions that can unbalance competitors and adversaries before discussions or during negotiations.

By finishing the war in Ukraine, for example.

Surprise submarine deployments may well enter this category.