Sam Altman could be right: he is not the only one to think that the stock market is in “bubble” territory

Is he right?

From the point of view of technical stock assessments, probably yes. From a fundamentals’ point of view, perhaps not.

A classic bubble exists when the assets evaluated are not fundamentally worth their price (and will never be) or when the underlying value is close to zero.

Thus, in the large Dutch “tulip mania” of 1637, it is clear with hindsight that the price of a tulip bulb should never be equal to 10 times an annual salary.

And in the great financial crisis of 2008, it became clear with hindsight that many mortgages had been granted to people who simply did not have the capacity to afford them, and therefore these mortgages were worth much less than the banks of the banks did not say it.

The question therefore becomes if AI is a bubble or not at the moment. From a fundamental point of view, the answer is no. Openai is literally worth nothing. It is not a tulip bulb or a house in the middle of nowhere. There is a real business there.

Brenda Duverce de JPMorgan told customers in a recent note that “OPENAI ARS reached around $ 13 billion (up 30% compared to June-25), and the company reported that it was on the right track to reach 700 minutes of weekly active users (up 40% compared to 25). She also noted that a “secondary market transaction which could push the company’s assessment to $ 500 billion, compared to the post-money figure of $ 300 billion previously cited in March-25, which would make Openai the most precious private company in the world.”

To put this in frankly, a company with a chatbot which is often mistaken is in a way to become the largest unicorn that the earth has ever seen. It seems sparkling.

But Openai is worth nothing. $ 13 billion in income is a real thing. Perhaps the value of its equity will decrease in the short term, but the company is not punishable by the way in which Lehman Brothers was in 2007.

But what about the technical point of view?

There is a lot of chatter at Wall Street at the moment to find out if technological actions are overvalued in a way that looks like a bubble. They have frightening graphics!

Here is a real skyscraper: the contribution to the growth of American GDP from the expenses of the data center is now the same as that of consumption expenditure, according to Apollo Management. The obvious problem with this is that this state of affairs exists because consumers have reduced Their spending habits as data expenditure has increased. Unless the data centers suddenly start to buy cars or shop for Home Depot, it’s not good in the long term.

This is not particularly good because the field in value of technological actions now masters the rest of the entire S&P 500. John Authers of Bloomberg wrote this morning: “It is unknown for 2% of the companies in the index to take into account 40% of its value:”

And here is a table of the tailor -made investment group. It has shown the performance since 2015 of the magnificent 7 companies compared to the rest of the market. “The Bloomberg Mag 7 index against its 500 ex Mag 7 index is quite incredible. You can barely see the gain of 129% of “ex Mag 7 due to the quantity of gain of 2,800% for the Mag 7 exceeds it,” says the company:

David Kostin of Goldman Sachs reportedly said that Mag 7 actions increased their profit per share in the second second quarter by 26% in annual shift. So there is real money that feeds a real business there.

The partial conclusion must be: it is not a bubble of fundamentals. No one thinks that AI is made of tulips. But it looks very much like certain actions are technically overvalued and it should not surprise anyone if this “bubble” bursts.

Here is an instantaneous action before the opening bell in New York:

• Future S&P 500 were flat this morning, pre-market, after the index closed flat yesterday near its record.
• Stoxx Europe 600 increased by 0.54% at the start of negotiations.
• The FTSE 100 of the United Kingdom increased by 0.31% at the start of negotiations.
• Nikkei 225 from Japan dropped by 0.38% to reach another record.
• CSI 300 from China dropped by 0.38%.
• South Korea Kospi dropped by 0.81%.
• Nifty 50 of India increased by 0.42% before the end of the session.
• Bitcoin Fallen at $ 114.9,000.