The best economist warns that the United States is “on the precipice of the recession” – and it will be difficult for the Fed to come to the rescue

After months to appear remarkably resilient in the face of President Donald Trump’s prices, economic prospects are suddenly more and more dark.

“The economy is on the precipice of the recession. This is the point to remember clear from last week’s economic data discharge,” Zandi wrote in a series of messages on X on Sunday. “Consumption expenditure has a flat line, construction and manufacturing contract and employment should drop. And with increased inflation, it is difficult for the Fed to come to the rescue. ”

The payroll increased by 73,000 people last month, well below the forecasts of around 100,000. Meanwhile, the Mayan count was revised from 144,000 to 19,000, and the total of June was reduced from 147,000 to only 14,000, which means that the average gain in the last three months is now only 35,000.

While Trump said without evidence that the data on jobs was “fake” and dismissed the agency manager who produces the report, Zandi noted that the data often gets large revisions when the economy is at a inflection point, as a recession.

Distinct reports have also held warning panels. The GDP has rebounded more robustly than expected in the second quarter, but a metric which eliminates the impact of foreign trade and rather examines the final domestic demand indicated the slowdown.

The report on personal consumer spending has shown that basic inflation has accelerated at 2.8%, more above the 2% target of the Fed, and that consumer spending increased less than expected in June. Fed decision -makers have kept interest rates in the meantime while waiting to see how many prices have an impact on inflation.

Meanwhile, construction expenditure continued to decrease in June in the midst of a sharp drop in single -family houses. And the manufacturing activity index of the Institute for the management of the offer for July has dropped, indicating the sector contracted at a faster rate.

For the moment, the GDP of the GDP of Atlanta Fed indicates continuous growth, although it should be mistaken at 2.1% in the third quarter, against 3% in the second quarter.

There are also no signs of mass layoffs, and the unemployment rate has barely changed, bouncing in a tight range between 4% and 4.2% for more than a year.

But Zandi said that the unemployment rate is still low only because the size of the workforce had stagnated. It was then that the workforce born abroad plunged 1.2 million in the last six months in the midst of the repression of Trump’s immigration, while the overall rate of participation in work has slipped.

As the labor supply has softened, demand also has it. Zandi highlighted a “freezing of hiring on the economy scale, in particular for recent graduates”. The result is that the so -called neutral level of employment gains necessary to absorb new workers – and maintain the stable unemployment rate – is now much lower.

“It is not a mystery why the economy is in difficulty; blame increase American prices and highly restrictive immigration policy,” added Zandi. “The prices are increasingly reducing the benefits of American companies and the purchasing power of American households. Fewer immigrant workers mean a smaller economy. ”

Friday, JPMorgan economists also struck the alarm during a potential slowdown. They have noted that the data on jobs show that hiring in the private sector has cooled with an average of only 52,000 in the last three months, with sectors outside health and education.

Coupled with the absence of signs that undesirable separations increase due to immigration policy, it is a strong signal that the commercial demand for work has cooled, they explained.

“We have constantly pointed out that a slide from the demand for labor of this magnitude is a recession alert signal,” added JPMorgan. “Companies normally maintain hiring gains thanks to growth downgrades which they perceive as transitional. In the episodes where the workforce slides with growth feedback, it is often a precursor of warming. ”