The farmer warns “this is a fire at five alarms” because the time is exhausted before harvesting, and there is still no agreement in China

Beijing, which has traditionally increased at least a quarter of all the soybeans cultivated in the United States, the Boycotte in retaliation for the high prices that President Donald Trump imposed on Chinese goods and to strengthen his hand in negotiations on a new global commercial transaction.

He let American soy -sole farmers worry not only about this year’s harvest, but the long -term viability of their businesses, partly built on the formerly insatiable appetite of China for American beans.

“This is a fire at five alarms for our industry,” said Ragland, who heads the American Soybean Association sales group.

The situation could even be sufficient to test the loyalty of farmers to Trump, although it still benefits from strong support throughout rural America. If no agreement is concluded soon, they hope that the government will take aid as it did during Trump’s first term, but they only see that as a temporary solution. Trump said on Thursday that he was planning a help package.

US and Chinese officials organized four series of commercial negotiations between May and September, with another probably in the coming weeks. No progress in soy has been reported.

Going closer to the harvest, “I am honestly worried that time is not exhausted,” said Jim Sutter, CEO of the US Soy Export Council.

Political pressure increases

After Trump has imposed prices on Chinese products, China has responded with its own prices, which now total up to 34% on American soy. This makes soybeans from other countries cheaper.

Reprisal rates in China also hit American sorghum, corn and cotton producers, and even GeoDuck divers were affected. But soybeans is distinguished due to the excessive importance of harvest for American agricultural exports. Soy is the best American food export, representing around 14% of all agricultural products sent abroad.

And China was by far the largest foreign buyer. Last year, the United States exported nearly $ 24.5 billion in soybeans and China represented more than $ 12.5 billion. This compared to $ 2.45 billion by the European Union, the second buyer. This year, China has not purchased beans since May.

With injured American farmers, the Trump administration is under increasing pressure to conclude an agreement with China. While the talks come on, Trump seems ready to help.

“We are going to take part of the prices – a relatively low amount, but a lot for farmers – and we will help farmers a little” during this transition period, said Trump.

The only way in which most farmers survived the Trump trade war in his first mandate was with tens of billions of dollars in government payments. But that’s not what most farmers want.

What farmers expect from Trump

“The American farmer, especially myself included, we do not want aid payments,” said Brian Warpup, 52, a fourth generation farmer from Warren, Indiana. “We want to work. We work the earth, we harvest the earth, the harvest of the earth. And the worst thing we could ever wish is a document. ”

Farmers seek to prevail for a long -term solution.

“Still, farmers were in the corner of President Trump,” said Ragland, president of the soybean association. “And I think the message that our soy farmers as a whole want to deliver is:” President Trump, we had their backs. We need you to have ours now. “”

He said farmers appreciate the desire to provide short -term help, but what they ultimately need are strong and reliable markets. “Our priority remains to see the United States.

Ragland, 39, hopes that his three sons will become the 10th generation up to his 4,500 acres in Magnolia, Kentucky. Unless something changes soon, he worries that thousands of farmers do not survive.

Arriving this year, many farmers simply hoped to break even because the prices of cultures were low when their costs had only increased. Trump’s prices, which have helped make their cultures not competitive in the world, have further reduced prices. And prices on steel and fertilizers have sent costs even more.

Darin Johnson, president of Minnesota Soybean Growers Association, said he always had confidence in the Trump administration to conclude a good trade agreement with China.

“I think where patience probably has time, it’s time,” said Johnson, a fourth -generation farmer. “I do not think that anyone who thought we were going to take so long because we were told 90 offers, 90 offers in 90 days.”

China negotiation strategy

The American soybean industry grew up in response to Chinese demand starting in the 1990s, when China began its rapid economic increase and turned to foreign producers to help feed its people. Soy -rich soybeans is an essential part of the diet.

Although China is based on interior crops for steamed beans and tofu, it needs much more soy for oil extraction and animal food. In 2024, China produced 20 million metric tonnes of soybeans, while important more than 105 million metric tonnes.

The American farmers came to count on China as their greatest client, which “gave the Chinese a lever point,” said Sutter. Taking into account the purchase of American soybeans, China is considered to be trying to take advantage of this purchasing power in commercial talks.

“I think it’s the strategy,” said US Soybean Export Council. “I think that is why China is targeting soybeans and other agricultural products because they know that farmers have a strong lobby and farmers are important to the United States government.”

Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington, did not answer specific questions about soy’s purchases, but urged the United States to work with Beijing.

“The essence of economic and commercial cooperation in China and the United States is a mutual advantage and a win-win,” said Liu.

China turned to Brazil when Trump launched its First Trade War in 2018. Last year, Brazilian beans represented more than 70% of imports from China, while the United States was 21% down, according to the World Bank data. Argentina and other countries in South America also sell more to China, which has diversified to stimulate food security.

What American farmers do in response

American farmers are also expanding their customers, said Sutter, who recently traveled to Japan and Indonesia in search of new markets. Taiwan is committed to buying $ 10 billion in soy, corn, wheat and beef over the next four years.

“There are strong efforts of diversification in progress,” said Sutter. But “China is so large, it is difficult to replace them overnight.”

Farmers are also working to increase consumption at home. The growth in biodiesel production has taken part of the soybean which was formerly exported. Others are crushed to produce soy oil and soy flour. The United Soybean Board invests in research on the advantages of soy use to feed cows and dairy pigs.

But the farmer of Iowa, Robb Ewoldt, director of the soybean council, knows that these domestic uses are gradually increasing.

“We cannot replace a China in a single stroke,” said Ewoldt. “It will not happen. We have to be realistic in there. ”