The fate of the stock market is summed up in the next 14 negotiation sessions

Job reports, a reading of key inflation and the interest rate decision of the federal reserve have all struck in the next 14 negotiation sessions, giving the tone to investors as they return from the summer vacation. The events arrive with the stock market apparently at a crossroads after the S&P 500 index has just published its lowest monthly gain since March and heads around September, historically its worst month of the year.

At the same time, volatility has disappeared, with the CBOE volatility index, or VIX, trading above the level of 20 keys only once since the end of June. The S&P 500 has not undergone 2% in 91 sessions, its longest section since July 2024. It affected another record level to 6,501.58 on August 28 and increased by 9.8% for the year which increased 30% since its April 8.

“Investors presupposes correctly being cautious in September,” said Thomas Lee, research manager at Fundstrat Global Advisors. “The Fed is rewriting a dominant cutting cycle after a long break. It makes it difficult for merchants to position themselves. ”

The longtime stock market bull has seen the S&P 500 lose 5% at 10% in the fall before bolishing between 6,800 and 7,000 at the end of the year.

Calm

Lee is not alone in his short -term skepticism. Some of the largest optimists of Wall Street fear that strange calm will send a contrary signal to seasonal weakness. The S&P 500 has lost 0.7% on average in September in the last three decades, and has posted a monthly drop in the past four of the past five, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The main catalysts on the market are starting to strike on Friday with the monthly job report. These data found themselves under the spotlight in early August, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics marked the payroll not enlarged in May and June by nearly 260,000. The adjustment sparked a tirade by President Donald Trump, who pulled the agency chief and accused him of manipulating data for political purposes.

After that, the BLS will announce its revision provided for in the current survey on the establishment of employment statistics on September 9, which can lead to additional adjustments to the growth expectations of jobs.

Then, inflation goes on stage with the report of the consumer price index arriving on September 11. And on September 17, the Fed will give its political decision and its quarterly interest rate projections, after which President Jerome Powell will hold his press conference. Investors will look for any roadmap that Powell provides for the trajectory of interest rates. The exchanges markets price ratings of approximately 90% that the Fed will cut them during this meeting.

Two days later, he just “triple witch”, when a large bunch of options related to expire actions, which should amplify volatility.

This is a lot of uncertainty to treat. But the traders seem strangely carefree on this crucial extent of data and decisions. Hell funds and large speculators are in charge of the CBOE, or VIX volatility index, at not seen rates in three years in a bet that calm will last. And employment day has an implicit volatility reading at the front of only 85 base points, indicating that the market is underestimated this risk, according to Stuart Kaiser, the strategy of negotiating American shares of Citigroup.

Risk of turbulence

The problem is that this type of tranquility and extreme positioning has historically foreshadowed a peak of turbulence. This is what occurred in February, when the S&P 500 culminated and volatility jumped on the concerns about the Trump administration plans, which attracted Pro Traders in East after 2025 Paris that volatility would remain low. Merchants also short-circuited VIX at extreme levels in July 2024, before the relaxation of the Yen trade, the world markets upset the world markets in August.

Friday, the VIX climbed around 16 years old after having touched its lowest levels of 2025, but the gauge for fear of Wall Street still remains below its average of one year.

Of course, there are fundamental reasons for the S&P 500 rally. The economy has remained relatively resilient in the face of Trump prices, while the growth in the profits of American companies remains strong. This left the most optimistic investors in American actions since they culminated in February, with historically low cash levels at 3.9%, according to the latest Global Fund Manager in Bank of America.

But here is the circular problem: as the S&P 500 climbs, investors are becoming more and more concerned with the fact that it is overvalued. The index is negotiated at 22 times the forecasts for average profits from analysts for the next 12 months. Since 1990, the market was no longer expensive than at the height of the DOT-COM bubble and Euphoria technology emerging from the depths of the cocovored pandemic in 2020.

“We are buyers of Big Tech,” said Tatyana Bunich, president and founder of Financial 1 tax. “But these actions are very expensive at the moment, we are holding money on the sidelines and waiting for any decent perspective before adding more to this position.”

Another well -known bull, Ed Yardeni of the eponymous company, Wardeni Research, wonders if the Fed will even reduce the rates in September, which would reach the stock market, at least temporarily. His reason? Inflation remains a persistent risk.

“I expect this action rally soon,” said Mardeni. “The market reduces many happy news, so if the IPC is hot and there is a strong report on jobs, traders can suddenly conclude that rate cuts are not necessarily a business concluded, which can lead to a brief sale. But actions will recover once the traders will realize that the Fed cannot reduce the rates for a good reason: the economy is always strong.”