The job market is low and weakens, says the best economists, while Trump turns to the future

The government’s closure has prevented the BLS from publishing its report on jobs for September Friday, focusing on alternative gauges.

The data from Revalio Labs, which scratches professional networking sites like Linkedin, show a gain of 60,000 jobs last month, mainly in health care and education.

But in a series of messages on X on Sunday, Zandi said that the “derisory” increase is probably a overestimation because Revelio’s data had been revised much lower recently.

Meanwhile, ADP counting on private sector wages revealed that employers lost 32,000 net jobs last month, a figure that Zandi declared the decline because it does not include public sector jobs that the government’s ministry of efficiency has reduced.

He also pointed out that most job gains in the ADP report were in health care and large companies with more than 500 employees. “Small businesses are the hardest affected by restrictive prices and immigration policies.”

Together, the Velio and ADP data suggest that there was no job growth in September, Zandi said. This trend is supported by the conference board gauge to find out if the jobs are easy to obtain or difficult to find, which have fallen at the lowest level since the beginning of 2021 and indicate an increase in unemployment.

“The main thing is that not having data from BLS jobs is a serious problem to assess the health of the economy and make good political decisions,” he added. “But private data sources on jobs admirably fill the information gap, at least for the moment. And these data show that the labor market is low and weakens. ”

Wall Street expected that the BLS report for September shows that 45,000 to 50,000 jobs were added, against the August gain of only 22,000. It was after the revisions of previous months have greatly reduced growth totals and even showed a net loss of jobs in June.

While readings on the job market run while inflation remains sticky, the sources have declared to Wall Street Journal That President Donald Trump’s advisers have urged him to focus on data for the start of next year which should seem brighter as arrangements in his tax and expenses are starting to settle.

The White House did not immediately provide a comment to Fortune But said to Newspaper That the administration “focuses on the thrust of supply reforms, the guarantee of billions of things in manufacturing investments and the implementation of historic commercial transactions which will revive the industrial domination of America”.

The message of Trump’s advisers seems to have been carried out with the president, although he referred to an even longer calendar to expect an increase in the economy.

“Our big year will not really be next year-it will be the following year,” he recently told journalists.

Admittedly, other economic indicators paint a more optimistic table than readings of the labor market. For example, GDP growth actually accelerates more quickly than the previous numbers indicated.

The growth of the second quarter was revised even higher, 3.8% compared to a previous reading of 3.3%, on robust consumption expenses. This force was probably continued in the third quarter while the Atlanta Fed GDP tracs growth at 3.8%.

Growth may not stop at this high rate. Stephen Brown, deputy chief economist in North America in Capital Economics, said income and expenses on Friday should still alleviate fears that the United States is at the dawn of net slowdown.

He also noted that discretionary expenses, which are generally reduced when consumers suffer, have led growth. And although spending gains have exceeded income in the last three months, the August savings rate was still 4.6% relatively high, which means that consumers are not yet too extensive.

“The increase in actual consumption in August means that, taking into account the stronger momentum in the third quarter, we now have monitoring of consumption growth in the third quarter of up to 3.3%, against 2.3% last week,” added Brown. “The growth of GDP in the third quarter will take place up to 4%.”

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