The momentum is the strength of Trump’s Gaza plan, but the lack of details is its weakness

Donald Trump’s framework agreement to put an end to the Gaza War and rebuild the devastated territory has a momentum behind.

This comes from a large part of the president himself. The momentum also comes from the main Arab and Islamic countries which have supported the plan, notably Jordan, Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, Indonesia and Turkey. And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, standing next to Donald Trump, also accepted him, despite the fact that he contains a word of a path to a Palestinian state which he has denounced several times.

To maintain the pace, Trump says that Hamas has “three to four days” to decide to say yes or no.

If the answer is no, war continues.

The proposed agreement is very similar to a plan put forward by Joe Biden over a year ago. Since then, there has been a huge murder of Palestinian civilians, more destruction in Gaza, and now a famine, while the Israeli hostages in Gaza had to endure more agony and captivity.

There have been many reports in the Israeli media according to which the Biden initiative failed because Netanyahu moved the goal posts with a new set of requests – under the pressure of the hard right in his office.

Despite this, the framework plan is an important moment. For the first time, Donald Trump puts pressure on Israel to end the war. Donald Trump turned into a leader to whom it is difficult to say no. No one wants to end up withdrawing the president of Ukraine in Ukraine that Zelensky received in the oval office in February. But things can change when the leaders leave the White House.

Before Benjamin Netanyahu left Washington DC to return to Israel, his staff filmed him by putting his version of the events. One element was the idea of ​​an independent Palestine alongside Israel, the two-state solution that the United Kingdom and other Western countries tried to rekindle by recognizing Palestine.

The Trump document gives an indefinite wink at the idea of ​​Palestinian independence. He says that after the reform of the Palestinian Authority, based in Ramallah and led by President Mahmoud Abbas, the conditions “can finally be in place for a credible path towards self -determination and the Palestinian state, which we recognize as the aspiration of the Palestinian people.”

Even the thought of a distant perspective of a Palestinian state was too much for Netanyahu, who had provided Trump with all my heart to the White House, telling him in English “I support your plan to put an end to the war in Gaza, which reaches our war goals”.

On the video, by passing his message in Hebrew to people at home before the long return flight, Netanyahu is invited to have accepted a Palestinian state. He was categorical.

“No, absolutely not. It is not even written in the agreement. But we said something. That we forcefully resisted a Palestinian state.” Trump, he said, accepted.

The momentum is the strength of the plan. His weakness is the lack of details, a characteristic of Trumpian diplomacy. The document that Trump and Netanyahu have approved, which also has the support of the United Kingdom and other European countries, is delivered with an approximate map of the stages of a withdrawal from the FDI, but none of the nuts and bolts that determine if the diplomatic agreements designed to put an end to a war are maintained or disintegrated.

If it is to function, hard negotiation will be necessary. In this process, there will be many opportunities for it to break down.

The traditional opposition parties in Israel approved the plan. He was condemned by ultra-nationalists from the Netanyahu coalition extremists, who loved the “Trump Riviera” plan extinguished at the start of the year, launched with a bizarre video showing the heads of Israel and the United States by sipping beach glass cocktails. The Israelis on the right were delighted that Riviera’s plan includes the abolition of more than two million Palestinians from Gaza. Jewish extremists want the annexed land and the Palestinians replaced by Jewish settlers.

The new plan says that no Palestinian will be forced to leave. Bezalel Smotrich, the Minister of Finance Finance and the leader of the settlers, compared it to the Munich Agreement, signed this week in 1938. In Munich, the United Kingdom and France forced Czechoslovakie to abandon the territory and shortly after its independence in Nazi Germany.

If Hamas accepts the agreement, and if Benjamin Netanyahu wants to find ways to appease Smotrich and the other extremists who keep his coalition in power, he will have a lot to sabotage negotiations in a way that blames Hamas. The structure of the Trump framework agreement allows Israel a range of veto opportunities for veto that he does not like.

It may not be possible to put an end to a deeply assisted conflict which lasted more than a century. In the longer term, the United Kingdom and many countries outside of Israel and the United States believe that any attempt at a solution that does not lead to Palestinian independence will not bring peace.

When the foreign ministers of the Arab and Islamic countries published their declaration of support, they said that they thought that this would lead to a complete Israeli withdrawal and the reconstruction of Gaza, and “a fair for just peace on the basis of a two -state solution under which Gaza is fully integrated into the West Bank in the Palestinian State in accordance with international law.” This could be considered as a reference coded to the decision of the International Court of Justice that the occupation of the Palestinian lands by Israel is illegal.

Netanyahu thinks that the agreement brings him closer to the elusive victory of Israel over Hamas. He denies all Palestinian straight on the land between the Jordan river and the sea.

A plan, two very different versions of what it means. The frame is ambiguous enough for the two interpretations to be possible. This is not a promising start.