The price threatened with 40% of Trump on products “ transmish ” is trying to target China and its manufacturing force

The goods deemed “transjured”, or sent to a third country with lower export samples, will face Trump’s price rates on Thursday.

The last slice of “reciprocal” tariff hikes, targeting what Washington judges unfair commercial practices, has an impact on dozens of Taiwan savings in India.

The transhipment rule does not name countries, but should have an impact on China being considerably given its production power position.

Washington is probably wanting to develop supply chains that depend less on China, according to analysts, while tensions will simmer between the two largest economies in the world and the United States seem the excess industrial capacity of Beijing.

But “it is a little more of the short -term effect of strengthening the tariff regime than a decoupling strategy,” said Josh Lipsky, president of the International Economy of the Atlantic Council.

“The goal is to worry about countries and make them go wrong, because they know that Trump could then increase prices rates again,” he added, referring to pricing escape.

The possibility of a strongly higher duty is a “perpetual stick in negotiations” with the countries, said Richard Stern, a fiscal and budgetary expert of the Conservative Heritage Foundation.

He told AFP that the expansion of sanctions around the world removes from Beijing alone.

Alternative supplies

Experts noted that Vietnam was the largest winner of supply of supply chain from China since Trump’s first prices around 2018, when Washington and Beijing engaged in a trade war.

And Robin Brooks, principal, main of Brookings Institution, said the signs of this year of significant transbords of Chinese products.

He noted in a June report that Chinese exports to certain Southeast Asian countries began to increase “abnormally” in early 2025 while Trump threatened generalized samples.

Although it is not clear if all these products are found in the United States, Brooks has questioned the probability that domestic demand in countries like Thailand and Vietnam castigated at the time when Trump imposed duties.

“One of the transhipment provisions is to force the development of supply chains that exclude Chinese contributions,” said William Reinsch, senior advisor to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“The other objective is to repel Chinese overcapacity and force them to eat their own surpluses,” he added.

But Washington’s success in this last objective depends on its ability to raise other countries on board.

“Transpersonation penalties are designed to encourage this,” said Reinsch.

Lipsky added: “The strategy that worked in the first term Trump, to try to offshore Chinese manufacturing to other countries such as Vietnam and Mexico will be a much more difficult strategy to perform now.”

Answer in China?

Lipsky noted that Beijing could see the transshipment clause as a targeting of China on trade, “because it is”.

“The question is how China takes this in the broader context of what had been a thaw relationship between the United States and China in the past two months,” he added.

While the two countries have temporarily lowered the three -digit prices on the exports of the other, this truce expires on August 12.

The countries are in talks to potentially prolong de -escalation, although the final decision lies in Trump.

It will be difficult to draw a line defining the origins of the product, according to analysts.

Customs fraud has been illegal for some time, but we do not know how Washington will see materials from China or elsewhere that have been considerably transformed.

The burden is the responsibility of customs authorities to identify transhipment and assess increased tasks.

“It will be difficult, especially in countries with close relations with China and no particular incentive to help us customs and border protection,” added Reinsch.