The Russian drone foray into Poland will test NATO resolution

Wednesday morning The Russian drones in Polish airspace led the jets to rush, a meeting of the emergency government is called – and fears that the determination of Europe and NATO against Moscow is up to the test.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that Polish airspace had been raped 19 times and that at least three drones were killed by Warsaw Jets, helped by Dutch F-35 and an Italian early warning.

Russia postponed the accusations that the foray was deliberate – although it also ceased to deny that its drones had empiety of the sovereign Polish airspace.

“No object on Polish territory was planned to be targeted,” said Moscow.

But European officials forcefully beat the suggestions that the law was perhaps involuntary.

“There is no evidence that this number of drones have flown this path … Polish territory by accident,” said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, while his Italian counterpart Guido Crosetto qualified night events in Poland a “deliberate attack” with the double objective of “provoking and testing”.

Although Poland has undergone several violations of its airspace since neighboring Ukraine was attacked by Russia in February 2022, this last foray – in size and deep in Polish territory – aroused real nervousness in Warsaw.

Tusk warned that Poland was closest to open conflicts since the Second World War. He also asked to invoke Article 4 of the NATO Treaty, which allows member countries to start a discussion with allies on threats to their security.

Some experts and analysts are divided on Russia’s motivations.

For some, drones – some of which have stolen towards Rzeszow Airport, a major logistics center for defense supplies and humanitarian aid to Ukraine – can have recognition objectives, with bad advice leading to accidental intrusion of airspace.

“There is a problem in proof of intention,” said Dr. Marina Miron, defense researcher at Kings College in London.

She thinks that the usurpation of general practitioners may have been responsible for drones crossing the Polish airspace and warned of the drawing conclusions based on information extracts. “This can lead (the incident) to appear as something it is not,” added Dr. Miron.

Many others believe, however, that the relatively high number of stolen drones in a Polish airspace clearly demonstrates that the attack was deliberate.

“The previous incursions were unique or very small numbers which were more easily explained by the dysfunctions of the orientation system,” said Justin Bronk of the defense group, Rusi to the BBC.

Justin Crump, CEO of the Sibylline Risk and Intelligence Company, accepted. He said that the drones in question seem to be drone gerberas with long Russian manufacture that can be used as a lure to distract the defenses as part of the “increasing gray actions of Russia against NATO”.

The lack of warheads on the wreath drones used on Wednesday makes them less threatening and allow Russia to play the action, added Mr. Crump.

Poland will now have to review the incident and share the results with its allies.

Whether deliberate or not, the unprecedented incident will provide valuable information to Moscow on the type of response he can expect from the West if he never decided to launch an attack on NATO countries, because many European leaders have said it expects it to do so in the near future.

“This is a test for Europe and NATO, regardless of Russia’s intention,” said Keir Giles, a principal researcher from the Russia and Eurasia program in Chatham House.

“Russia will learn from European resolution and in particular the ability of Poland to resist attacks of this kind.”

The expressions of condemnation rather than a solid answer will be just as encouraging for Russia if it was an accident as if it were a deliberate provocation, added Mr. Giles.

He said that a Sky Shield to protect airspace on Ukraine would prove to Russia that the West continues to ensure that air threats are intercepted.

But such a plan – which would involve European countries deployment of fighter planes and pilots – has led to fears of an accidental confrontation with the Russians and has not been carried out despite its first fleet since 2023.

The reaction of the United States to the incident in Poland will also be expected – and followed closely.

Some American legislators in the Democrats and Republicans have condemned the attack shortly after having taken place.

However, Wednesday evening, US President Donald Trump had only recognized events in Poland through an article on social networks. “What is Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Let’s go!”, He wrote without developing further.

The cryptic post was in accordance with its ambiguous relationship with Russia and its president Vladimir Putin.

During the last month, Trump both deployed the red carpet for the Russian president and threatened sanctions against Moscow if she had not reached peace with kyiv.

These threats have not yet been materialized, and even the warnings of “consequences” not specified for the aggression of Russia in Ukraine seem to have fallen by the way.

While its leaders are disturbing to prepare a demonstration of unity and strength, Europe – which is concerned with the American engagement towards the security of the continent since the start of Trump’s second mandate – will look at the next movement of the United States as closely as Russia.

“A sign of weakness and non-imposing costs and consequences will confirm for Moscow that they can continue to degenerate without fear of the result,” said Mr. Giles.

Additional reports by Matt Murphy and Paul Brown