The “special treatment” of Nvidia and AMD shakes the channel of world flea supply

In the United States, the discussion of Trump’s Nvidia Agreement focused on what it means for the ability of Chinese Chinese and Chinese Businesses to get their hands on advanced American technology. But several other countries and companies are probably studying the agreement closely to see if they could also sell in China.

Trump’s NVIDIA agreement “tells you that national (American) security is not really the problem or has never been the problem” with export controls, explains Mario Morales, who directs the work of the IDC market company on semiconductors. Companies and countries will “probably review what their strategy is, and in some cases, they will detach themselves from the policies of the American administration”.

“If Nvidia and AMD receive special treatment because they have” paid to play “, why shouldn’t other companies do the same?” He adds.

Get allies on their side

The Biden administration has spent a lot of diplomatic energy so that its allies agree to limit their semiconductor exports to China. First, Washington said that manufacturers like TSMC and Intel who wanted to exploit billions of subsidies could not extend the advanced production of fleas in China. Then the United States pushed its allies to impose its own sanctions on exports to China.

“Export controls and other sanctions are necessarily multilateral, but are responsible for collective action problems,” explains Jennifer Lind, associate professor at Dartmouth College and International Relations Expert. “Other countries are often deeply inexpensive at the idea of telling their businesses – which are positioned to generate many income, which they use for a future innovation – which they cannot export to country X or country Y”. ”

This results in “refusing to participate in export checks or to devote little or no effort to ensure that their companies respect the controls,” she says.

Paul Triolo, partner of the DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group, stresses that “Japanese and Dutch officials during the Biden administration have resisted any serious alignment with American controls” and suggest that the American allies “will be happy to see a major control major”.

Trade negotiations underway between the United States and its trading partners could further weaken export controls.

Chinese officials may require a glimpse of flea sanctions in a large case between Washington and Beijing, similar to the way the United States has agreed to grant export licenses to Nvidia and AMD in exchange for China loosening its orders on rare earth magnets.

Japan and South Korea could also provide flea checks as part of their own trade negotiations with Trump.

‘Expect continuous diversions’

A separate problem are controls on the transfer of NVIDIA GPUs. The United States has relied on governments like Singapore, Malaysia and the United Arab Emirates to prevent advanced Nvidia transformers from going to China.

The control resumed following the surprise exit from the Deepseek AI earlier this year, in the midst of allegations according to which the Startup based in Hangzhou had formed its powerful models on the Nvidia processors which were the subject of export controls. (The startup claims to have acquired its processors before the export controls).

Currently, the two chips authorized to be sold in China – H20 from NVIDIA and MI308 of AMD – are not the most powerful AI chips on the market. Headlight processors, like Blackwell Chip from Nvidia, cannot be sold in China.

This means that the smuggling of fleas will continue to be a concern for the American government. However, “the application will be uneven,” says Triolo. “The trade department lacks resources to follow GPUs around the world, expect continuous misappropriation of limited quantities of GPU to China via Thailand, Malaysia and other jurisdictions.”

Triolo is rather focused on another flaw in the export control scheme: Chinese companies accessing AI fleas based in data centers abroad. “There is no sign that the Trump trade department is preparing to try to fill this gaping escape in American efforts to limit Chinese access to an advanced calculation,” he said.

How much will the global supply chain change?

All analysts do not think that we will see a complete detangling of the export control regime.

“The controls involve a complex multinational coalition that all the parties will hesitate to disturb, given how uncertain the results will be,” explains Chris Miller, author of Chip War: The most critical technology fight in the world. He adds that many of these manufacturers of fleas and suppliers do not have the same political weight as Nvidia, the most precious company in the world.

However, although these companies are not as political as Nvidia, they are just as important. TSMC, for example, is the only company that can manufacture the new generation of advanced chips; ASML is the only supplier of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines used to make the smallest semiconductors.

“I do not believe that it is a lever that the Trump administration will easily give,” said Ray Wang, a semiconductor researcher to the Futurum group.