The United States will be the most vulnerable to a recession at the end of this year and at the start of the next one as a rate and immigration Fallout Peak

In a LinkedIn article on Thursday, the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, Mark Zandi, said that the leading recession indicator based on the machine-learning of his business had put the chances of a slowdown in the next 12 months at 49%.

This comes from weeks after warning that the economy was “on the precipice of the recession” and that more than half of the industries already allow workers, a sign that is accompanied by past recessions.

Although tax reductions and public dependants have contributed to growth, this will not come until next year. For the moment, the basic case is that the economy avoids a recession, “but not much,” said Zandi.

“The economy will be the most vulnerable to the recession towards the end of this year and at the start of next year,” he added. “It is at this point that the benefits of the inflation of higher prices and restrictive immigration policy will reach a peak, heavyly weighing on the real income of households and therefore consumer spending.”

Zandi sees GDP growth reaching a minimum of 1%, against 3%in the second quarter, inflation cultivating at 3.5%. The latest price index of personal consumer spending showed that the annual rate was 2.6% in June, while the July consumption price index increased by 2.7%. But even this perspective can be too low. Zandi has already said Fortune That if Trump continues to deport immigrants to the current rate, inflation could get closer to 4% if and when he culminates, probably at the start of next year.

The recession warning even supposes the reduction rates of reductions in the federal reserve, from next month. Friday, the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, opened the door to rate reductions during a speech at the Jackson Hole economic policy symposium.

According to Zandi, the reference rate will end up settling at an estimated equilibrium level of 3% at the end of 2026, against 4.25% to 4.50%.

Despite Fed inflation problems, decision -makers should reduce rates because they perceive the effects of prices prices as temporary instead of persistence. Meanwhile, a higher risk is hidden in job data.

“The weakening economy, in particular the labor market, will motivate the Fed to reduce rates as soon as possible,” said Zandi, adding that Trump pressure at the cut will also be difficult to ignore. “Employment growth has already reached a dead point, because companies have reduced their hiring. Large downward revisions of employment earnings from previous months also suggest that the economy is at a inflection point, and job losses in the coming months are more and more likely. ”

The economy being confronted with many threats, it would not be much to push it in the recession, he warned, distinguishing a sale on the market for the Treasury bonds which would send long-term yields.

Indeed, the United States is already mired in massive budgetary deficits, which are also increasingly motivated by payments of interest on increasing debt. And the recently adopted tax package should add billions of billions to the deficit.

Meanwhile, investors doubt about the status of security of the bonds of the Treasury, the American role in the world economy and the capacity of America to govern with competence. Indeed, Trump’s pressure on the Fed increased on Friday when the president threatened to dismiss Governor Lisa Cook if she does not resign.

“There are many potential catalysts for a bond market sale,” said Zandi. “Given the recent events, the appointment by Trump of a new president of the federal reserve by May is a good candidate. The independence of the Fed is in question, and nothing is more likely to frighten bond investors than if the Fed is captured and maintains short -term rates too low for too much time, to foment higher inflation.”