Trump-Modi’s ties struck the bottom of the rocks with new prices on India on Russian oil

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was one of the world’s leading leaders to visit Washington’s weeks after US President Donald Trump began his second term.

He called Modi his “great friend” while the two countries set an ambitious target to double their trade at $ 500 billion by 2030.

But less than six months later, the relationship seems to have touched the bottom.

Trump has now imposed a total of 50% of prices on goods imported from India, and its previous threat of leaving 10% additional for the country’s membership of the Brics group, which includes China, Russia and South Africa as a founding member, still.

It initially imposed a price of 25%, but announced on Wednesday 25% additional as a penalty for the purchase of Delhi de Petrolement Russian – a move that the Indian government called “unjust, unjustified and unreasonable”.

And last week, Trump described the Indian economy as “dead”.

This is an astonishing reversal in a relationship that has gone more and more forcibly in the past two decades, thanks to the efforts of successive governments in the two countries, bipartisan support and convergence on global issues.

In recent weeks, there have been positive signals from Washington and Delhi on an imminent trade agreement. Now it seems more and more difficult, if not impossible.

So what’s wrong?

A series of faux pas, greatness, geopolitics and internal political pressure seem to have broken down the negotiations.

Delhi has been retained so far in his response to Trump tirades, hoping that diplomacy could possibly help obtain a trade agreement. But at Trump’s White House, there is no guarantee.

Trump commented many questions that Delhi considers red lines. The largest of them is that Trump repeatedly puts India and his rival Pakistan on an equal footing.

The American president welcomed the head of the Pakistani army Asim with the White House a few weeks after a bitter conflict between the two South Asian rivals.

He then signed a commercial agreement with Pakistan, offering the country a preferential rate of 19%, as well as an agreement to explore the country’s oil reserves. He went so far as to say that one day, Pakistan could sell oil to India.

Another constant irritant for Delhi is Trump’s repeated affirmation that the United States has negotiated a ceasefire between India and Pakistan.

India considers its dispute with Pakistan on cashmere as its internal affair and has always rejected third -party mediation on the issue. Most world leaders have been sensitive to Delhi’s position, including Trump in his first pass as president.

But this is no longer the case. The American president doubled his complaint even after Modi declared in the Parliament of India that “no country had mediated in the cease-fire”.

Modi did not name Trump or the United States, but the internal political pressure rises on him so as not to “bow” to the White House.

“The fact that this happens in the context of heavy and high-level engagement in the United States with Islamabad immediately after an Indian-Pakistani conflict is even more exasperating for Delhi and the wider Indian public. All this has sharpened the concerns hosted by some in India in the United States.

He adds that part of the anger in Delhi could “be luggage of the era of the Cold War that come in the foreground”, but “this time, it is also intensified by real-time developments”.

Modi’s government is prosperous on nationalist issues, so that its supporters would likely expect a firm response to the United States.

This is a Catch -22 situation – Delhi still wants to conclude an agreement but does not want to comfort themselves under pressure from Trump.

And it seems that Delhi gradually releases the restraint. In his response to Washington’s anger at the purchase of Russian oil by India, Delhi promised to take “all necessary measures” to protect his “national interests and economic security”.

But the question is why Trump, who loved the hospitality of India and called him a large country earlier, made a tirade against an ally of trust.

Some analysts see his insults as a pressure tactic to conclude an agreement which, according to him, operates for the United States.

“Trump is a real estate tycoon and a hard negotiator. His style may not be diplomatic, but he is looking for the results of diplomats. So I think what he is doing part of a negotiation strategy,” said Jitetra Nath Misra, former Indian ambassador and now professor at OP Jindal Global University.

A source from the Indian government said Delhi had given numerous concessions to Washington, including no tariff on industrial goods, and a gradual reduction in prices on cars and alcohol. He also signed an agreement to leave Starlink by Elon Musk Start operations in India.

But Washington wanted access to the agricultural and dairy products in India to reduce the $ 45 billion trade deficit it works with Delhi.

But these sectors are a red line for Modi or, moreover, very Indian Prime Minister. Agriculture and related sectors represent more than 45% of employment in India and successive governments have fiercely protected farmers.

Mr. Kugelman thinks that giving way of Washington’s requests is not an option for India.

“India must first appease the anger of the public and clearly indicate that it will not give in to pressure. This is essential for internal political reasons,” he said.

He also thinks that Trump’s insistence that India ceases to import Moscow oil has more to do with his growing frustration against Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“We see Trump continuing to increase his pressure tactics, trying to cut Russia from its most important oil buyers by penalizing them for doing business with Moscow,” he said.

But Delhi cannot afford to stop importing oil from Russia overnight.

India is already the third largest global consumer in crude and could exceed China in the largest position by 2030, because its energy demand should increase with a rapidly growing middle class, according to the International Energy Agency (AIE).

Russia now represents more than 30% of total oil imports in India, a significant leap of less than 1% in 2021-2022.

Many in the West see this as India indirectly funding the Moscow War, but Delhi denies it, arguing that the purchase of Russian petroleum at a discount ensures energy security for millions of citizens.

India also considers Russia as its “all -time” ally. Moscow has traditionally come to the rescue of Delhi during past crises and always benefits from the support of the wider Indian public.

Moscow is also the largest supplier of Delhi weapons, although its share in the India defense portfolio fell 36% between 2020-25, going from 55% between 2016 and 2020, according to the International Stockholm Peace Research Institute.

This was largely due to Delhi stimulating domestic manufacturing and by buying more in the United States, France and Israel.

But the role of Russia in India’s defense strategy cannot be overestimated. This is something that the West understood and did not dispute – until Trump decides to break with established standards.

Until now, India has successfully walked the diplomatic stiff rope with the West overlooking its close ties with Russia.

The United States has long considered India as a bulwark against the domination of China in the Indo-Pacific region, which provided Bipartite in Delhi in Washington.

And Moscow (although sometimes reluctantly) did not react harshly to his ally who projects himself on close ties with Washington and other Western countries.

But now Trump has challenged this position. Delhi’s reaction will decide the future of the India-US relationship.

India has been measured in its response so far but does not hold back completely. In his statement, he said that the United States had encouraged him to continue to buy Russia oil for global energy market stability.

He also said that targeting was unjustified when the EU continues to buy energy, fertilizer, mining and Russia chemicals.

Although things seem bad, some analysts say that everything is not lost. India and the United States have close links in many sectors, which cannot be uprooted overnight.

The two countries cooperate closely in the sectors of space technology, IT, education and defense.

Many large national IT companies have invested massively in the United States, and most large companies in Silicon Valley have operations in India.

“I think that the fundamental principles of the relationship are not weak. It is a paradox that the day when Trump announced 25% of unrecognized prices and sanctions, India and the United States have collaborated in a strategic field when an Indian rocket has sent a satellite developed jointly in space,” said Misra.

It will be interesting to see how India reacts to Trump’s net rhetoric.

“Trump is shameless transactional and commercial in his approach to foreign policy. He has noness about the deployment of these potentially alienating severe tactics against a close American partner like India,” said Kugelman.

But he adds that there is a lot of confidence in the partnership, given the work devoted to it in the past two decades.

“So what is lost can potentially be found. But because of the extent of the current discomfort, it could take a long time.”

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