Trump reports so much prices that it seriously reduces the national debt of $ 37 billions

In fact, yes, according to the committee of a responsible federal budget (CRFB).

Since his return to the White House, Trump has sparked a wave of “reciprocal prices” on almost all major American trade partners. About 25 billion dollars were collected in July, the CRFB calculated, more triple of the amount at the end of last year, and surely a fraction of what the coming months will give. The DC based reflection group estimates that prices will bring about $ 1.3 billion of new net income until the end of the current term of Trump and 2.8 billions of dollars until 2034. This represents a jump of $ 600 billion in prices in May.

For the context, during the year 2025 so far, the prices have represented 2.7% of all federal income, or more than two typical levels. Some analysts project this climbing figure up to 5% if current policies remain in place.

Impact on national debt

In theory, pouring $ 2.8 billions of prices into national chests could considerably slow down the growth of federal debt. Congressional Budget Office and CRFB models suggest that if Trump’s pricing diet could reduce the deficit up to 2.8 billions of dollars over the next decade. “Recent tariff increases are likely to significantly reduce deficits if they are allowed to remain in force or replace on a payment base as GO,” wrote the CRFB in its analysis.

Experts always warn the impact, although real, remains limited compared to the magnitude of the American government’s finances: a huge 37 billions of dollars. Even with historical rate earnings, these income represents only a fraction of total federal income – now close enough to replace income taxes or meet the difference in debt. In fact, during the 2025 financial year, income taxes and wage taxes covered three -quarters of federal income.

Then there is the question of who really pays the price, or as Trump likes to say, who eats prices. The government obtains income from who, exactly?

Eat prices

While Washington has a flood of new income, reality on the ground is more complex. Companies generally transmit the cost of prices to consumers in the form of higher prices. Economic research shows that new prices work as a regressive tax, hitting households with lower and medium -legged income. The average second lowest income family experienced an annual increase in costs of $ 1,700; Those of the higher income decile paid more than $ 8,100 more per year, according to Yale Budget Lab.

In addition, defense and infrastructure experts warn the price cost of prices can invite higher prices for the necessary equipment and critical components for military and national security agencies. The prices “make it more expensive to meet the requirements of national defense,” wrote the Council for Foreign Relations in early July.

Trump’s tariff dividend checks float – but debt likely to grow

President Trump launched the idea of distributing “pricing dividend checks” to American families in addition to the promises to reduce debt. But most economists say that mathematics are not entirely added: while the government benefits from record income, these gains are still overshadowed by annual expenses and existing commitments. Even in the most optimistic scenarios of the Trump administration and its budgetary surveillance dogs, the prices will only slow down – not inverse – the upward walking of national debt.

The CRFB is a bipartite institution respected which dates back to 1981, with a board of directors still made up of former members and administrators of the main budgetary, tax and political institutions, such as the Congressional Budget Office, the Budgets of the Chamber and Senate budget, the Bureau of Management and Budget and the Federal Reserve. The CRFB regularly produces analyzes of public spending and debt and deficit trends, as well as the solvency of programs such as Social Security.

The CRFB has regularly argued to reduce federal deficits and control the growth of national debt. It generally promotes reforms of federal “law” programs and operates as a deficit hawk, which attracts anger of the figures on the left. For example, Paul Krugman characterized him as a “rumble of the deficit” when he was always with the New York Times.

For this story, Fortune Used a generative AI to help an initial project. An editor checked the accuracy of the information before the publication.