Trump’s last plan to end the war in Gaza contains the same tripwires as those previous

Despite Donald Trump’s hyperbole according to which his 20-point peace plan to put an end to the war in Gaza will create “eternal peace” in the Middle East, he could be condemned for the many reasons that killed hopes of ceasefire earlier.

The key bonding point in the proposals of the ceasefire past was the so-called “day after” in Gaza-the question of what will happen to the Palestinian enclave obliged by the war after Hamas has published the remaining Israeli hostages which it has been holding for almost two years.

The last cease-fire, which lasted less than six weeks between January and March, collapsed after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided that he would not proceed to the second and third stages of the proposed agreement.

He would have seen the Israeli forces withdraw from Gaza and end the fighting permanently, preparing the land so that the broken territory is embarking on a long reconstruction process.

But in this agreement, where exactly the Israeli troops are retiring, which would precisely supervise the process of reconstruction of Gaza, and what the troops would ensure the safety of the enclave have never been clearly stated.

‘Board of Peace’

Trump’s new proposal finally provides details – in some cases, the very specific.

Trump keeps the greatest work for himself, as president of a so-called “peace council” who would also understand the former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and other heads of state still anonymous.

Palestinians would be involved at the “technocratic level”, making up a committee responsible for the daily management of public services.

In particular, there was no mention of a role for an agency of the United Nations, such as the United Nations Rescue and Work Agency, which before the war was responsible for the delivery of a large part of the education, health and other social services in Gaza.

Hamas, and other militant groups in Gaza, should completely accept to disarm and its members could have no role in the future Gaza government, although Israel says that it would allow members who renounce violence to stay on the territory.

Until now, Hamas has refused the main requests of Israel – disarm and release hostages – because it said that there was no way to make sure that Netanyahu would not break the floor and would not resume the fights once the hostages have returned, which happened in March.

Indeed, Netanyahu clearly indicated that he would continue to fight until Hamas is completely destroyed. Three days ago at the UN, he said that Israel “was to finish the work” in Gaza.

The presence of Trump, Blair and the strong involvement of neighboring Arab nations within the transitional commission, and perhaps in the context of a military stabilization force, are probably supposed to reassure Hamas that this time an agreement will stick.

Broken cease

But it is far from being sure that it will.

Israel signed a commercial ceasefire with the United States with Lebanon at the end of 2024 after decimating the management supported by Iran from the militant Hezbollah group-to be accused on several occasions of having raped the ceasefire.

Indeed, Israeli forces remain in several regions of southern Lebanon in violation of the agreement and monitors report that more than 150 people have been killed in Israeli attacks since the truce has entered into force.

The analyst of the Crisis group, Mairav ​​Zonszein, says that the model proposed for the withdrawal of Israel from Gaza is similar to that of Lebanon.

“Israel has freedom of action and will only retire when Hamas disarm, which will not happen,” she wrote on social networks.

Trump’s plan calls on Israel to leave Gaza City as soon as the hostages are released and Israel “will not occupy or will not annex Gaza”. But he also says that Israel can keep the troops in large gangs from the territory until this stabilization force has made enough progress to suppress any potential threat of “terror”.

There is no attached calendar – which means that Israeli forces could in theory remain in the territory for many years, which Hamas has rejected several times.

“I think it’s a victory for Netanyahu,” said Marwa Maziat, professor of international relations and Israeli studies at the University of Maryland.

The key points that the Netanyhu government has pushed – the release of hostages, a demilitarized Gaza, the end of the reign of Hamas and a security perimeter within Gaza – are all part of the 20 points of Trump, she told CBC News.

Maziat says that the only obvious concession that the Prime Minister of Israel seems to be making is that there will be no forced displacement of the Palestinians of Gaza, because many on the political law of Israel have pressure.

Netanyahu also insisted that there is no role in Gaza for the Palestinian Authority (PA), which governs occupied West Bank.

When Prime Minister Mark Carney joined other Western leaders last week by recognizing a Palestinian state including Gaza and the West Bank, he said Canada thinks that the AP should be its government.

Although Trump’s plan indicates that the AP should ultimately take over in Gaza, it indicates that it will only happen once it has “completed its reform program” – once again, a chronology that is enough to allow Netanhayu to discuss that this day will probably never come.

“The vast majority of Israelis have no faith that the PA Leopard changes its places,” Netanyahu said at a press conference.

Erga Atad, researcher in the fight against terrorism at Reichman University of Tel Aviv, says that this leaves the key question of who will direct Gaza after Hamas unanswered.

“It is necessary to have a new type of leadership. So the main question remains. Who will be, who will take leadership from this day?” She said.

Ha HeLeryer du Royal United Services Institute based in London, a military reflection group, said that the Trump plan reduces Palestinians to most key decisions concerning their future.

“Gaza would remain entirely under Israeli occupation, with international supervision for certain questions. AP reforms can occur (but) there is no responsibility mechanism to ensure a rule transfer,” he wrote.

And Netanyhu also rejected, again, Israel would never accept a Palestinian state – even if Trump’s plan maintains the weak hope that he could lie at the end of the process he presented.

What is happening then will largely depend on the reaction of Hamas. The group said it would carefully examine all the ceasefire proposals.

This could mean that there will be no yes or no fast, but days or weeks of discussion or clarifications.