Trump’s Ukraine pivot: Rack or support a winner?

The Trump administration seems to be behind Ukraine, as long as there is something for the United States.

This seems to be the growing consensus among politicians, diplomats, experts and European editorial writers.

On the one hand, there is an increasing number of votes who say they believe that the astonishing pivot of the American president Donald Trump this week towards the support of Ukraine is nothing more than the coarse policy and the management of the image in the face of an agitated peace process.

Others say that it actually indicates that Washington deliberately takes a step back from the longtime war and the peace process that Trump began.

“It seems to me that he is moving away and puts the key to Europeans,” said Matthew Schmidt, an expert in Eastern Europe at New Haven University, Conn.

“I think Trump is motivated by the desire to win a Nobel Peace Prize and by an extreme embarrassment on a scale … I think that said:” I don’t think I can win this. I don’t want to risk losing it and getting attached to me. “”

Trump has provided no justification for the change of direction.

In his declaration on social networks on Tuesday, Trump said that he was now thinking that Ukraine could probably resume all of his territories conquered by Russia with the help of Europe.

He was congratulated from top to bottom of the political spectrum.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy went so far as to say that Trump was “well informed” and that he clearly understands the situation on the battlefield.

The remarks are light years away from the outstretched confrontation in the oval office last winter which saw Trump declaring that Ukraine had no “cards” and had to make territorial concessions.

Trump had boasted that he could end the war in 24 hours and continued this summer to welcome Russian President Vladimir Putin at a summit made for television in Alaska.

So far, not much has come from the vaulted peace effort.

Look | Trump speaks with Zelenskyy to the United Nations:

Trump suggests that Ukraine could win war with Russia

US President Donald Trump made a brutal change of tone in the war in Ukraine with hard words for Vladimir Putin at the United Nations General Assembly and at a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Several European leaders have applauded about Trump, but Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, writing on social networks, said that the apparent support by Ukraine was misinterpreted.

“President Trump said that Ukraine could, with the support of the European Union, find all its territory. This surprising optimism hides a promise of a reduced American involvement and a change of responsibility to end the war towards Europe,” Tusk wrote in an article on Wednesday.

“Truth is better than illusion.”

There is another view, a little more charitable – if not mercantile -. The increase in American economic interest in the Critical mineral sector in Ukraine and the current negotiation of a drone agreement up to $ 30 billion, which will benefit the US army directly, could be at the origin of the president of the president.

Zelenskyy, in his speech to the United Nations, said that his country was willing to share its drone know-how in partnerships with Western nations.

The United States has had very little to say about negotiations. However, Zelenskyy, before her appearance at the UN, said that Ukraine had highlighted a discussion agreement. It should cover investments in drone production, joint or co-production agreements in Ukraine and weapon purchases in the United States

Last summer, Canada signed a joint drone production partnership with Ukraine.

Schmidt said he was not subscribing to Trump was motivated by the economic or military advantages of closer cooperation with Ukraine. He also disputes the point of view of the president that the fate of Ukraine is in the hands of Europe – as long as he continues to recruit members in the army and to receive high -end air defense capacities.

“Ukraine is doing a lot now and it’s pretty self -sufficient,” said Schmidt. “He understood how to produce weapons, train drone pilots. He, I think, competence, strategic command.”

This skill and strategic thought have been exposed since the end of August when Ukraine launched its campaign targeting Russian oil refineries. It is estimated that drone strikes have disabled around 17%, or a sixth of the oil refining capacity of Russia.

Several published reports have suggested some days, refining production is decreasing by 20%.

The attacks have disrupted the treatment as a whole, strategic refineries like Ryazan, Volgograd and Salavat, which reduced the volume of refined petroleum products available at national level in Russia and for export.