Two years after Maui burned, researchers reveal the real number of forest fires

In August 2023, electric lines slaughtered on Maui, Hawaii, sparked a forest fire which quickly exploded in multiple rapid fulaux stretched by strong winds. During several days, fires reduced a large part of the city of Lāhainā to ashes, moving thousands and killing more than 100 people.

New research published on Thursday, August 22 in the journal Frontiers in Climate suggest that this disaster has also caused an increase in mortality to the population level beyond what the official death of death has captured. By calculating the excessive mortality rate all causes, how much more deaths took place during a given period than expected – scientists found a 67% increase in the local mortality rate for August 2023. During the deadliest week of the fire, the local mortality rate was 367% higher than expected. These results underline the need for better preparation for disasters which incorporates indigenous Hawaiian ecological knowledge, concluded the researchers.

What the excess mortality rate reveals

Looking at the excess mortality rate offering a more in-depth image of the impact of the fire, the co-owner of the author Michelle Nakatsuka, medical student and researcher at the Grossman School of Medicine of New York University, told Gizmodo in an email. “Official figures mainly count direct causes, such as burns or inhalation of smoke, but excessive deaths capture (the) real toll, telling us how many people died that what would have been expected otherwise in the month of Lāhainā fires,” she said.

Disasters and forest fires often cause indirect deaths that affect communities over time. When clinics are closed and the roads are blocked, people cannot fill their prescriptions or obtain dialysis treatments, said Nakatsuka. Stress and displacement can worsen chronic conditions, and power or communication failures can delay emergency responses. “These impacts are amplified in subressource contexts and (are) suffered disproportionately by vulnerable groups, such as the elderly or people of color,” she said.

The tragic toll of Maui shots

Even with this knowledge, Nakatsuka and his colleagues were surprised by the increase in excessive mortality in August 2023. Their analysis included all the causes of death except COVID-19. “While we are planning an increase in excess deaths, see more than 80 additional deaths during the month of Lāhainā fires was striking,” said Nakatsuka. “It was also surprising to see that the proportion of these deaths occurring outside the medical circles was greater than expected,” she added.

Indeed, the number of deaths that did not take place in a medical context – such as emergencies – take place 68% in previous months to 80% in August 2023. These people died in houses or public places, which suggests that many could not obtain medical care because of fires.

A path to resilience

Although excessive mortality all causes of causes is useful for correlating an increase in deaths with natural disasters, it offers little knowledge of the details of these deaths, said Nakatsuka. “The main limitation here is that we cannot say exactly what deaths have been caused by fires or examine excessive mortality specific to lāhainā; we cannot measure the overall increase in deaths,” she said, adding that future research should analyze death files as well as medical and toxicological reports to identify the causes of death.

However, these results reveal the need to improve preparation for MAUI disasters and to invest in strategies for attenuation of forest fires rooted in indigenous knowledge, said Nakatsuka. “Indigenous Hawaiian practices focus on taking charge of the earth (mālama” āina) in a way that naturally reduces the risk of fire, such as restoration of native plants, maintaining various ecosystems and water resources management, “she said. “The realization of indigenous knowledge with modern climate prediction tools will minimize the risk of future climatic crises and central community at the heart of disaster and recovery efforts.”