Two years later, Israel and Hamas will seize the chance to end the war?

After two years of war, there is a chance of an agreement that will end the murder and destruction in Gaza and return the Israeli, living and dead hostages to their families.

It is an opportunity, but it is not certain that it will be seized by Hamas and Israel.

It is a dark coincidence that talks occur exactly two years after Hamas inflicted trauma on the Israelis which is still sharp.

The October 7 attacks killed around 1,200 people, mainly Israeli civilians, and 251 were taken hostage. The Israelis estimate that 20 hostages are still alive and they want the return of the bodies of 28 others.

The devastating military response from Israel has destroyed most of Gaza and killed more than 66,000 Palestinians, mainly civilians and comprising more than 18,000 children.

The figures come from the Ministry of Health which is one of the remains of the administration of Hamas. His statistics were generally considered reliable. A study in Lancet, the London-based medical journal, suggested that they were an underestimation.

The Israelis and the Palestinians both want the war that the war ends. The Israelis are tired by war and polls show that a majority want an agreement that returns the hostages and ends the war. Hundreds of thousands of reservists in the armed forces, the FDI, want to return to their lives after several months in an active service.

More than two million Palestinians in Gaza are in a humanitarian disaster, captured between the firepower of the FDI and hunger and in certain regions, a famine created by the man created by the restrictions of Israel to the aid of the band.

The version of Hamas that was able to attack Israel with a two -year -old devastating force has long been broken as a coherent military organization. It has become an urban guerrilla warfare which rises an insurrection against the FDI in the ruins.

Hamas wants to find a way to survive, even if it has agreed to give up power to Palestinian technocrats. He accepts that he will have to put back or dismantle what remains of his heavy weapons, but he wants to keep enough firepower to defend himself against the Palestinians who want to take revenge for almost two decades of brutal rule and the catastrophe that Hamas’ attacks have made them.

He does not say it publicly, but an organization which still has followers and a charter that seeks to destroy Israel will also want to emerge with sufficient left to rebuild its capacity to be up to its name, which is an acronym of the movement of Islamic resistance.

Israel would like to dictate the terms of Hamas. But the fact that Hamas has a chance for serious negotiations opens more possibilities that probably did not seem to be a month ago. It was then that Israel tried and failed to kill Hamas leaders in a series of strikes on a building in Doha where they discussed Donald Trump’s peace proposals. Their main objective, the senior Khalil Al-Hayya official, directs the Hamas delegation during the talks of the Red Station of Sharm El-Sheikh. The son of Al-Hayya was among the dead, although the leaders escaped from their lives.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has another type of survival in mind. He wants to preserve his power, continue to postpone his trial for corruption, win the elections due next year and not fall into history as a leader responsible for security errors that have led the deadly day of the Jews since the Nazi Holocaust.

To achieve this, he needs a credible way to declare “total victory”, a sentence he has used several times. He defined it as the return of the hostages, the destruction of Hamas and the demilitarization of Gaza. If he cannot do this, it will not be enough for him to report the very real damage that Israel has inflicted on his enemies in Lebanon and Iran in the past two years.

Hamas and Israeli negotiators will not meet face to face. Egyptian officials and Qatari will be the intermediaries, and the Americans who will also be there will be a major, perhaps decisive influence.

The conference base is the Gaza Peace Plan at 20 points by Donald Trump. What this will not, despite its insist publications on social networks on permanent peace, is putting an end to the long conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians for land control between the Jordan river and the Mediterranean Sea. It does not mention the future of the West Bank, the other part of the territories that the United Kingdom and others have recognized as the state of Palestine.

The issues are raised in Sharm El-Sheikh. There is a chance to go to a ceasefire that could lead to the end of the most destructive and bloody war in more than a century of conflict between Arabs and Jews.

The first challenge is to exercise conditions for the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinians serving perpetuity in Israeli prisons and gas which have been held without trials since the war. It is not a simple task.

President Trump wants results quickly. He wants to revive his ambition to negotiate a large case in the Middle East, in the center which would be a rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. This cannot happen when Israel kills a large number of Palestinian civilians in Gaza and impose restrictions on humanitarian aid that causes great suffering, and when Hamas holds Israeli hostages. The Saudis were also very clear in a series of public statements that he cannot occur without a clear and irreversible path to an independent Palestinian state.

Trump forced Netanyahu to register for a document which includes a reference certainly vague and indeterminate to the possibility of Palestinian independence. In a statement then, Netanyahu chose to ignore this by repeating her commitment that the Palestinians would never get a state. There is a lot in the Trump document that Israel wants in terms of the end of the power of Hamas and the future governance of Gaza.

But Netanyahu was used to obtaining his own path in the oval office. Instead, Trump forced him to read official apologies to the Prime Minister of Qatar for the air strike who failed to eliminate Hamas leaders. Trump needs Qatar on board to move forward with his ambitions to redo the Middle East.

A question is why Hamas is ready to abandon hostages without a strict calendar for Israel to leave Gaza and end the war. One possibility is that the Qataris convinced them that Trump will ensure that it happens if they give him the possibility of winning victory by repatriating all the hostages of Israel, alive and dead.

Even Thus, Trump still uses a language that Netanyahu needs Israelis to hear, like his threat to Hamas if they rejected the agreement, promising “my full support” so that Israel could be before to destroy Hamas.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he would only take a few days to train if Hamas was serious. It will take more time to eliminate the nuts and bolts that should underline a complex agreement. So far, all they have is Trump’s frame.

Two years after the long and unresolved conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians exploded in the Gaza War, it is a major challenge to end the murder and guarantee the immediate future of the Palestinians and the Israelis. It will be a skilled diplomacy and a prolonged commitment with the details, of which there are few precious plan of Trump in 20 points. Trying to find a specific language that will fill the gaps will provide many potential buying blocks.

No one has a higher opinion than Trump himself of his ability to conclude agreements. In the foreign policy, the until now delivery has not equaled its boastful. He did not settle a multitude of wars; The exact number of the number he claims to have ended varies depending on the way he says it. The most notoriously Trump did not end the Russian-Ukraine war in a single day of taking on, as he had predicted. But a competence that Trump has, after a whole life in real estate, is an innate instinct on how to apply the pressure to obtain what he wants.

Indirect talks in Egypt occur because Donald Trump was able to put pressure on both sides. Threatening Hamas with extinction if they refused to engage with its plan was the easy part. The American presidents have led international pressure on Hamas since the group won a Palestinian election in 2006 and used the force to take control of Gaza from its Palestinian competitors from Fatah the following year.

A big difference between Donald Trump and Presidents Clinton, Obama and Biden is that he strikes stronger and more decisively during the attempts of Benjamin Netanyahu to manipulate him that his democratic predecessors were willing or capable of doing so.

Trump took the qualified Hamas “yes but” to his solid proposal yes for peace. It was enough for him to do in front of the advance. The New Axios service reported that when Netanyahu tried to persuade him that Hamas was playing for the time that Trump was “why are you so negative”.

Israel depends on the United States. The United States was a complete partner in the war. Without American help, Israel could not have attack Gaza with such ruthless and prolonged force. Most of its weapons are provided by the United States, which also offers political and diplomatic protection, between a veto with several resolutions to the United Nations Security Council which were to put pressure on Israel.

Joe Biden, who was called Irish Zionist, has never used the lever effect from Israel’s dependence on the United States. Donald Trump first puts his plans for America and used America’s latent power over Israel so that Netanyahu folds, at least with regard to talks. It remains to be seen if this pressure continues. Trump changes his mind.

The delegations of Hamas and Israeli have powerful criticism at home who want war. Hamas sources told BBC that military commanders still in Gaza were ready to fight to the end and take as many Israelis as possible with them. The coalition of Benjamin Netanyahu is based on the support of ultra nationalist extremists who thought they were close to their dream of expelling the Palestinians from Gaza and replacing them with Jewish settlers.

If the talks in Egypt fail, the two terminals become possible.