Volatile links, a tightening of trust and the ECB meets -

Two types of history dominated the chatter in the editorial room this week.

The favorite of the coolorants? The buffoonery of high -level CEOs, with the departure of the boss of Nestlé on an unhappy case with a subordinate and the resignation of the CEO of Sunntory on the possible purchase of illegal substances both causing praise in the editorial rooms of London and Singapore.

But what has kept the busiest offices is the volatility of the bond market, which could well spread next week. In the past few days, we have had a series of guests sharing their point of view on some of the most important yield movements observed on the British Golden market and through Europe for decades.

And the more could come next week …

Confidence or no confidence, this is the question

At the epicenter of European uncertainty of obligations, France is France.

On Monday, there will be a vote of confidence in the government, called by Prime Minister François Bayrou – and the ruling party is almost certain to lose.

Cuellar photo | Flickr | Getty images

The rivals of rebellious France, the National Rally and the Socialist Party have all said that they would vote against the government. This raises the perspective that President Emmanuel Macron calls an early election, although it is more likely that he will seek to attribute another centrist goalkeeper government.

In a client straw survey, Nomura noted that yields of French government obligations – or oats – should move even more radically to cause “major loss of trust in international investors”. In a note, the bank underlined the next revision of the note of the sovereign debt of France by Fitch, which should take place on September 12, as a key to monitoring.

The French flag was suspended above the tomb of the unknown soldier of the Arc de Triomphe in Paris on May 8, 2015, during a ceremony to mark 70 years since the victory over Nazi Germany during the Second World War.

Italy was the bad boy in Europe. Now France takes the stick

The ECB to remain “deliberately non -informative”

Another inflection point this week will be done when the ECB will meet Thursday in the middle of the increased volatility on the market.

The central bank should maintain the rates pending at 2%, the HSBC predicting that President Christine Lagarde will maintain a “dominant bias”. The ECB itself stressed the need to remain “deliberately non-informative on future interest rate decisions” in its July account of its political meeting.

Market observers expect Lagarde to be questioned about uncertainty in France during his press conference, but economists predict that it will avoid responding directly.