What each party wants Ukrainian discussions in the White House

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Laura Gozzi and Tom Geoghegan

BBC News

AFP via Getty Images Headshots of Trump and Zelensky - Trump wears a blue suit and a red tie while Zelensky wears a dark jacket and a round neck topAFP via Getty Images

He promises to be a day like no other in the White House later, when world leaders make a rare collective visit for Croset discussions on Ukraine.

What had been presented as a meeting between two presidents, Donald Trump and Volodomyr Zelensky, has now become more a summit.

Leaders of the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Finland, the EU and NATO have crossed the Atlantic to have their saying the way in which the three-year war with Russia should end and on what terms.

It is a reflection of the height of increased European issues and concerns that the United States has transferred its position to less favorable to Ukraine.

We decompose what each of the people present – and who are not – would consider a victory when the sun sets on a long day of talks.

We – an agreement, any agreement

The promise of Trump’s campaign was that he would resolve this conflict on his first day in power, but six months later, the breakthrough he wants to escape him.

The terms of any agreement seemed less important to Trump than the agreement itself, so that the conditions have changed over time.

Since he met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday, Trump seems to have abandoned his Moscow review and the threat of sanctions, and has decided to erase pressure on Zelensky instead.

In a social position at the end of Sunday evening, he warned the Ukrainian president that he had to give up the hope of NATO membership and will have to concede Crimea, which Putin illegally annexed in 2014.

Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff said on Sunday that Washington would provide security guarantees to Europe aimed at detering the new Russian assault. But the details remain vague.

So far, the United States has resisted European requirements for the future security of Ukraine. All eyes will be on the White House later to see if it has really changed.

Ukraine – Avoid abandoning the territory

Zelensky finds himself in the little enviable position to have to stand in front of an increasingly impatient Donald Trump, who seems to have been influenced by Putin and who has already accused Zelensky of showing peace.

Trump will probably tell Zelensky that he must agree to abandon land. It will be extremely difficult for the Ukrainian president to give in, because it would lead to a retirement from Donetsk and Luhansk, regions that thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have fought and died to protect since 2022.

This would also allow Russia to control the huge area of territory that it could use later as a launch for a new attack.

Thus, Zelensky cannot accept concessions to landing without solid security guarantees which would trigger if Russia attack again. They could have been provided by NATO, but Trump clearly said that Ukraine will not join the alliance.

The details of any alternative guarantee have probably not been developed, but without them, it will be difficult for Zelensky to make commitments.

Ukraine is also concerned about the fact that Trump seems to have passed to want a cease-fire in pursuing a complete peace agreement. This could take an exceptionally long time, allowing continuous Russian attacks, civil deaths and front line losses.

Map showing Russian gains in the Eastern regions of Lukansk and Donetsk Ukraine

Europe – an American commitment to Ukraine security

European leaders will try to push Trump to flesh out what might look like what American security guarantees for Ukraine.

The imprecision of American statements on the issue is alarming for Europeans who feel protection against future potential attacks in Russia will have to come from a credible American commitment.

There is also nervousness around the idea that the United States can emphasize that Ukraine abandons land to Russia. The European continent has a long history of bloody wars and the leaders want to avoid a scenario in which the borders of a sovereign country are redesigned by force.

These serious concerns explain the unprecedented decision for such a large contingent of leaders to visit the White House at the last minute.

Last week, a virtual meeting in the United States-EU before the Alaska summit seemed to harden Trump’s criticism of Russia; Now that he seems to have stretched the side of Moscow again, European leaders will try to impress him that their concerns about long -term security on the continent have not changed.

Russia – More Ukrainian land

There will be no Russian representative in the White House today. It may not matter: it seems that Putin made enough impression on Trump last week that Moscow could be convinced that his point of view will be represented adequately.

Trump has already said that Ukraine would not join NATO – and Russia wants this commitment to be repeated and ratified. He also wants a total control over the donbas, which would cause kyiv to abandon the ground he still has in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Perhaps even more important, Moscow has managed to instill in Trump that it is now up to Zelensky to conclude an agreement to end the war – knowing very well that he cannot agree to give in the territory. A victory for Russia would be that this friction led to Trump moving away from the negotiation table for good and leaving Ukraine and Europeans fend for themselves.


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