What hides behind France’s political crisis and what could happen next?

French Prime Minister François Bayrou lost a vote with confidence of deputies, ending his nine months in power during a period of chaos in the parliament of the country, the National Assembly.

Bayrou, 74, was the fourth Prime Minister in two years under President Emmanuel Macron, whose second mandate is an office was overshadowed by political instability.

The minority government of the outgoing PM requested 44 billion euros (38 billion pounds sterling) of budget cuts to combat France’s public debt and is now actually collapsed.

The BBC looks at what led to its withdrawal by the deputies And what could happen next.

French President Emmanuel Macron took a bet in June 2024.

Faced with a deadly loss for his party to the vote by the European Parliament, he called a parliamentary election to a snap which, according to him, that he hoped “a clear majority in serenity and in harmony”.

Instead, this resulted in a suspended and divided parliament that made it difficult to collect the support necessary to adopt invoices and the annual budget.

Macron appointed Michel Barnier last September, but in three months, the man who negotiated Brexit for the EU had released – the shortest period since the start of the fifth Republic of France.

Bayrou has now undergone the same fate, a little less than nine months since his arrival last December. He will officially resign on Tuesday.

Certain parts – mainly on the far right and the far left – continue to claim a first presidential election.

Macron, however, has always said that he will not break before the end of his mandate in 2027.

Instead, he must now choose between appointing a fifth Prime Minister in less than two years, which will face the same insoluble opposition – or will call on the legislative elections to Snap and risk an even more hostile National Assembly.

There are few good options for the President because the effects of his June 2024 bet continue to repercussions.

Bayrou’s key question was France’s debt crisis, and what he said was the need to reduce public spending to prevent a disaster for future generations.

In simple terms, the French government has spent more money for decades it has generated. Consequently, he must borrow to cover his budget.

The French government claims that public debt amounted to 3,345 billion euros, or 114% of GDP, at the start of 2025.

This is the third highest public debt in the euro zone after Greece and Italy, and equivalent to nearly € 50,000 per French citizen.

Last year’s budget deficit was 5.8% of GDP and what should not be 5.4%. Public debt will therefore continue to grow as the loan covers the deficit.

France – like many developed nations – is faced with demographic headaches of an aging population – fewer workers are taxed and more people who pulled the state pension.

Bayrou is one of French politicians who wish to reduce the deficit by redefining generous social programs – such as state pensions.

In his speech in Parliament on Monday, Bayrou spoke of a country on “support for life” and addicted to expenses.

Two years ago, France increased retirement age from 62 to 64 years for the born in 1968 or after, and Bayrou warned that the feeling that French workers can stop working at the beginning of sixties is now obsolete.

However, there is a lot of opposition to new cuts. The predecessor of the Bayrou government collapsed in a vote of trust on the issue last December.

Left politicians called for tax increases, rather than budget cuts.

France probably goes to another period of doubt, drift and speculation.

Macron may act quickly to appoint a new Prime Minister – it is certainly in the interest of the country that he does it.

But practices – and the previous one – suggest that the two suggest that this could prove to be an elaborate process.

Macron must find an impeccable name sufficiently for at least part of the parliamentary opposition that they will not automatically.

The first two PMs of this buzzed parliament – Barnier and Bayrou – took weeks to find. The third will not be easier.

In the meantime, Bayrou will probably remain as a guardian.

There is the pressure of certain districts – notably the national rally of Marine Le Pen – for a new dissolution of the National Assembly and the parliamentary elections.

But there are also strong voices saying that it would be a waste of time, because a new vote would be unlikely to change a lot.

Beyond that, there are also voices – from the far left this time – calling for Macron’s resignation. It is unlikely that it will happen.

The pressure will be on Macron to name a successor from the left. The last two prime ministers came from the right and the center, and a left alliance came out numerically at the top of the elections in 2024.

Olivier FaureThe leader of the Socialist Party would be a possibility. The 57 -year -old man has a group of 66 deputies in the National Assembly.

Two other left possibilities are Former Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuveand the veteran Ex-Minister Pierre MoscoviciCurrently head of the Court of Auditors, the Official Accounting Office.

If Macron decides to stick to the center and to the right, his first choice would probably be Sébastien Lecorna, 39The current Minister of Defense who is a member of the Macron Renaissance party and who would be close to the president.

Another curator whose name has been mentioned is the current Minister of Labor and Health, Catherine Vautrin.

Two other possibilities of the interior of the government are Interior Minister Bruno Retailleauwho now directs the Republicans, and Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin.

But with all eyes on the presidential election of 2027, would these heavy goods vehicles want the electoral death of death which must be Macron’s next PM?