When the next recession is released, the one who is president will face intense pressure to reduce prices, then do not count on them for income, says the best economist

The average effective rate rate is now 20.2%, the highest since 1911, according to the Yale budget laboratory. Based on income rates generate so far, they should bring about $ 300 billion a year.

Although this is not enough to eliminate the federal budget deficit, which should widen nearly 2 dollars of dollars this year, it is still a significant amount. So why not count on them as a source of long -term income?

In the episode of last Wednesday of the Face the future The coalition Podcast Concord, a non -partisan group focusing on the reduction of national debt, the chief economist of Moody’s analysis, Mark Zandi, stressed that the prices were imposed by executive decree and can be modified in an instant.

In addition, the so-called reciprocal rates are faced with judicial disputes over the argument that they are not covered by the international law on economic powers.

Consequently, Zandi warned against making other tax decisions and expenses according to the hypothesis that these prices will remain in place. And if the economy goes south, all bets are disabled.

“I suspect that the next time the economy is recession-and it may not do, but at some point, which will do it-which will be undergoing significant pressure to reduce these prices because they can do it under death. They do not need to go to Congress to obtain legislation,” he added.

A slowdown can even happen as soon as possible. Earlier this month, Zandi warned that the economy was on the verge of a recession.

On Sunday, he followed this, saying that if the United States is not in recession now, more than half of the approximately 400 industries followed in government data already lose workers, a phenomenon that is accompanied by previous slowdowns.

Meanwhile, most costs of prices are transmitted to consumers, which means that these import taxes are actually sales taxes. Goldman Sachs calculated that around 67% of pricing costs are passed on to consumers.

“There will be a strong incentive on the part of this president to say:” Okay, I will reduce taxes “,” said Zandi to Carolyn Bourdeaux de la Coalition Concord and Robert Bixby.

While Trump has launched the idea of using pricing income to provide a kind of dividend or delivery to the Americans, the White House insists that consumers do not exhaust tariff costs and that foreign exporters are.

Be that as it may, Zandi said he was thinking that it is very unlikely that the prices will generate $ 300 billion a year in the next decade and notified not to count on a windfall like that.

“In fact, if you have done so, we are preparing for an even more disastrous and darker budgetary situation on the road, because I do not think that these prices will be about 10 years old,” he added.