Why are Trump’s prices unlikely to provide manufacturing jobs he claims

The improvement of national manufacturing is ostensibly the long -term leader in the prices of American President Donald Trump, but there is little evidence that radical import taxes will bring factory jobs to American workers on the scale it boasts.

Trump has launched several reasons for the launch of his country The highest rates in almost a centuryincluding stopping traffic (relatively minimal) of Canada Fentanyl and generate hundreds of billions of dollars in Income for the US Treasury.

However, Trump’s most coherent land has been that prices will trigger a new golden age in domestic manufacturing, forcing companies to build factories in the United States and create what he said to be “millions and millions of jobs.“”

The Americans who based their vote for Trump in 2024 on this promise must now wait to see if it is accomplished. This expectation could be infinitely for a long time.

Philip Luck, former deputy chief economist in the US State Department, says the current tariff regime has no meaning to make industry prosper.

Trump’s strategy “will increase costs, it will reduce American competitiveness and it will worsen us,” Luck told CBC News Network on Thursday.

Look | Dozens of countries have struck new prices:

New American rates now in force for dozens of countries

The new prices of US President Donald Trump on more than 90 countries around the world have entered into force.

But just for a moment, give Trump the benefit of the doubt and consider a scenario where to slap the high prices on imports actually makes companies with strong arms to move production to the United States

Will this also move manufacturing jobs in the United States?

“Very few workers, very automated”

The problem is that manufacturing growth in the United States is no longer equivalent to comparable employment growth, and has not been in decades for decades.

“We are (manufacturing) now with very few workers, we do it very automated,” said Luck. “Even if we increase manufacturing, I don’t know that we are going to increase jobs with it.”

Consider these two facts: the Number of Americans employed in manufacturing culminated in 1979, and the Value of American manufacturing production It is enough to continue upwards since then – always recovering recession and even, adjusting inflation, reaching a record in 2024.

Michael Hicks, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the Ball State University in Muncie, in Ind., Does not provide any job treasures appearing following Trump prices.

Trump “has entered an economy that saw the largest manufacturing in American history,” said Hicks.

“This really testifies to the productive of American workers, the quality of technology and capital investment in manufacturing.”

Hicks says that spectacular productivity gains are what is really behind the long -term drop in American manufacturing jobs.

“This is due to better qualified workers. It is better automation, it is digitization,” he said. “The story that these jobs have gone abroad is easy to believe, even if the data suggests in a very coherent way that it is wrong.”

Trump was aimed at highlighting his vision of manufacturing this week in an appearance with Apple CEO, Tim Cook – an American company in the prices.

Apple has announced an increase in the United States of $ 100 billion in its domestic production plans, bringing the company’s American investment promises to $ 600 billion over the next four years.

Look | American companies, consumers feeling the effects:

Cost of Trump prices add up for certain American companies, consumers

US companies and consumers feel the impacts of US President Donald Trump’s prices, some financial reports highlighting additional costs totaling in billions. Mike Crawley of CBC says that the cost of prices has “emerged in recent weeks”.

Apple’s plan “will bring factories and mounting channels across our country, all roaring,” Trump told journalists in the White House on Wednesday.

“Today’s announcement is one of the biggest commitments in what has become among the largest investment booms in the history of our country.”

But what will Apple’s commitment to $ 600 billion for employment really do? Society press release promises 20,000 new jobs in the next four years. This is precisely the number of Apple jobs said in 2021 That its 430 billion dollars planned for American investments would create in the four years that have followed.

The Wall Street Journal welcomed Trump-Apple’s announcement with This roundupDescribing the manufacturing sector as a “spraying” in 2025.

“Economic activity linked to manufacturing has decreased during most of Trump’s second term,” said the newspaper.

According to the main reference, two months of consecutive contraction in the manufacture of this evaluation: five months of consecutive contraction in manufacturing. Offer management institute; And a net loss of 37,000 manufacturing jobs in the three months since May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

(Trump quickly pulled the commissioner of the office after the release of the last figures.)

Will it take more time for the prices to provide jobs? This is not what happened during the Trump steel and aluminum prices during his first mandate.

The staff of the American federal reserve noted in 2019 that any increase in steel jobs in the protective effect of prices was much more than offset by job losses in the manufacturing sector as a whole, driven by cost increases related to prices.

“Our results indicate that prices have been an obstacle to employment”, ” Their research concludes.

Dennis Darby, CEO of Canadian manufacturers and exporters, says automation is the only way to be competitive in industry and that is why new online production in North America uses fewer people.

“The jobs that are in the manufacturing sector today are not jobs in the 1970s, when the United States had a lot more than millions of people in manufacturing.” Said Darby.

“These low-skill jobs have mainly disappeared,” he said. “This is the trend and it will not change.”