At the end of the war in Gaza in 2021, Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, was. photographed sitting in a chair in his destroyed house, a symbol of continued opposition to Israel.

Mr. Sinwar was killed in the recent Gaza war, during which Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, vowed to eliminate and destroy Hamas. And yet, when the cease-fire took effect on Sunday after 15 months of massive destruction and death, Hamas – severely wounded by the decline – has survived and, at least for now, will remain in charge of Gaza.

Thousands of Hamas fighters have already come out of hiding and are scrambling to re-establish control.

“In short, Hamas is not standing still, but it is still the biggest force in Gaza,” said Daniel Levy, a former Israeli negotiator and president of the US/Middle East Project, a think tank based in London and New York. .

This situation shows the weakness of the agreement reached with Mr. Netanyahu, who is facing it great political pressure at home. It also comes as Donald J. Trump prepares to run for president amid great uncertainty over how he plans to deal with a Middle East landscape that has changed dramatically since his first term.

And the war is not over. The three-phase cease-fire agreement, which is unchanged from the plan announced by President Biden eight months ago, is very fragile, as evidenced by the fraught delays and disagreements in launching it on Sunday morning. There will be 16 days until the second round of negotiations begins.

From this first stage to the second, which would mark the end of the war, and the complete withdrawal of the Israeli army from Gaza, is considered by many to be very difficult, if not impossible, given the necessary and political consent. strength in all directions.

Trump was praised by many for wanting Netanyahu to do it now, giving the Israeli prime minister cover to do so. Whether Trump and his team, who have a lot more on their plate, will invest the time and energy to get through the next, more difficult phase remains to be seen.

Trump does not want war to start again on his watch, said Natan Sachs, director of the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. But Mr. Netanyahu, after being strongly opposed to the agreement within his own coalition, “does not want to end the war, and Hamas, in turn, wants to continue his military campaign and to restore it,” said Sachs.

Mr. Netanyahu should seek any violation by Hamas of the consequences of the resolution as “reasons why the second phase cannot and will not happen,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House. , a research institute in London. “And they’re going to play very hard about how Israel will leave.”

The agreement may end the war for now, but as in Lebanon, it gives Israel and its forces “the right to act,” said Ms. Vakil, referring to A ceasefire was signed in November and Hezbollah, the Lebanese armed group. Mr. Netanyahu himself said on Saturday, in a speech to the country, that Israel “has the right to resume fighting if Israel comes to the conclusion that the negotiations for the second stage are hopeless.”

Netanyahu has been refusing to discuss who or what will rule Gaza instead of Hamas, especially in handing over the territory to the group Israel has spent the last 15 months trying to destroy, killing thousands of people, both civilians and fighters. process. The war began after Hamas led Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing about 1,200 people and arresting about 250 others.

Now back in Gaza, Hamas will be overseeing humanitarian work. Yahya Sinwar’s brother, Muhammad, now runs Hamas in Gaza.

Mr. Trump, in turn, will face a difficult and clear choice of how to use his power in the Middle East, especially if he wants, as he says, to revive the policies of the stabilization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. A deal between the two countries appeared close to happening before the war in Gaza.

Mustafa Barghouti, a member of the Palestinian Legislative Council, said that the ceasefire agreement is good for the Palestinian people – “the killings will stop and the prisoners will come out of prison” and there will be an increase in humanitarian aid. But there were no guarantees what the deal would do, he said, adding that the Palestinians “need a real solution that leads to an end to the Israeli occupation” of Gaza and the West Bank.

The Saudis made it clear during the war that they now want concrete steps on the road to an independent Palestinian state, something Netanyahu has repeatedly vowed to avoid. And some of those close to Trump favor Israel’s reoccupation of the West Bank, which would make a Palestinian state impossible. Ambassador-elect to Israel, Mike Huckabee, said to Israel in 2017 that “there was no such thing” as a West Bank or service.

“The annexation of the West Bank would kill any chance of a two-state solution,” said Mr. Barghouti.

At some point, said Aaron David Miller, a former American diplomat who is now with the Carnegie Endowment, “Netanyahu will clash with Trump, who wants a deal with the Saudis and Iran.”

Even the Gaza deal presents a major political challenge for Netanyahu. Already, one of the right-wing parties in his coalition, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, has left, promising to return if the war resumes. If the coalition’s other far-right party, led by Israel’s finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, also collapses, Netanyahu would be leading a minority government nearly two years before the election.

In addition to Gaza, Netanyahu also faces two domestic challenges, a new budget and a bill to force the haredim, or ultra-Orthodox, to ensure opposition to far-right and religious parties. Budget is important. If it doesn’t pass by the end of March, Sachs said, the governing agreement is terminated.

“There could be a real political crisis, so we could see Trump against Ben-Gvir and Smotrich as we approach the second round,” said Mr. Sachs.

Those political views could come to the fore if Mr. Trump decides to push through a deal with Saudi Arabia — and present Mr. Netanyahu with a tough decision.

Israel’s leader could alienate its allies, cancel the deal and anger its most important ally, the United States. Or he could dissolve the government and call for elections by working with Mr. Trump to achieve lasting regional peace — including a real path to a Palestinian state.

The latter choice would present a major threat to Mr Netanyahu, whose unpopularity among voters forced him to align with Mr Ben-Gvir and Mr Smotrich in the last election.

Focusing on everything is Iran, which it is enriching uranium to a weapons-grade level quickly. Iran denies that it wants to bomb, but it is shrinking in the region and its economy is growing. Both Israel and the United States have vowed to stop Iran from developing a nuclear bomb, and there is a strong argument within Israel that now is the time to destroy Iran.

But Trump is thought to be reluctant to drag himself into another war, and says he is open to trade with a weakened Iran. The President of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, he has been reaching to European diplomats and Trump officials to say that his country also wants an agreement on its nuclear program to lift economic sanctions.

Mr. Trump is really unknown, Sachs said. Mr. Netanyahu and the Israelis, he said, “will meet a US president who will certainly be the most acceptable of Israel – and who is willing to accept – but he will be forced to impose whatever he thinks is in his favor.”